The interactive graphic comes from New York-based software engineer Andrew Yuan, who created the visualization that identifies Brazil — not necessarily a shock — as the nation most likely to win. The predications are based on research that analyzed 40,000 matches, 45,000 ranking positions and geographic data for the team’s success in different locations.
As the favorite, Brazil was given a 21 percent chance to take the cup with the U.S. hypothetically slotted at 2.9 percent — a forecast reflecting the national team’s traditional struggle to enter final rounds.
However, since the Cup began on June 12, not all predications have held. Spain is forecasted to be in the second spot at 7.6 percent. The country is followed by Germany with a 7.5 percent chance to win.
In addition to overall probabilities, data from the visualization depicted teams’ chances of rising to the next levels of competition. For the next U.S. match with Belgium, stats estimate the U.S. as the likely underdog.
Play with the probabilities yourself by visiting the interactive site here.
