Emergency managers in both Volusia and Flagler counties are encouraged by the new products from the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. They include an interactive storm surge watch and warning graphic, and an experimental graphic estimating the time and date a storm's winds may arrive in a given region.
"This information really helps people to know what to expect during a disaster and I'm really hoping it saves lives," said Steve Garten, emergency services director for Flagler County.
Even more than the graphics, the potential for better analysis of storm systems with NOAA's new GOES-16 satellite will be a huge leap forward, said Jim Judge, Volusia County's emergency management director. The improved graphics and forecasting tools give everyone a better idea of what to expect and when, Judge said.
Matthew passed northward offshore last Oct. 7, having trekked a devastating path through the Caribbean. By the time it departed the North Carolina coast, the storm had claimed the lives of at least 585 people and caused at least $15 billion in damages. Most of the deaths occurred in Haiti. Matthew claimed five lives in Volusia County and caused nearly $600 million in damages in Volusia and Flagler counties.
The storm's center missed a local landfall by about 25 miles, a blessing many won't soon forget.
"Had it been 15 miles more westward, you and I wouldn't be talking about hotels from the ocean to the Halifax River," said Bob Davis, president and CEO of the Lodging & Hospitality Association of Volusia County.
As it was, Matthew caused an estimated $67.7 million in damages to beachfront hotels in Volusia County. Today, about 98.9 percent of the hotels have recovered from the storm, Davis said.
"The Silver Beach Inn and one or two smaller ones are still closed," as they work to recover from hurricane damage, he said. A couple of additional hotels, La Playa and Acapulco, are closed for complete remodels and rebranding. While those hotels may have experienced damage, he said, their re-openings aren't tied to damage recovery.
The storm ripped dozens of feet of dunes away from the Flagler County shoreline, collapsing sections of State Road A1A and forcing at least the temporary condemnation of several homes. Flagler officials estimate the total cost of dune restoration could top $50 million.
This year's six-month Atlantic hurricane season may be more active than normal, the Weather Service has warned. It also started early, with Tropical Storm Arlene in the Atlantic in April.
If a storm does approach Volusia and Flagler counties, local emergency officials hope the new forecast products will help convince residents of the dangers of approaching storms and help everyone the timing and potential hazards.
Advances in forecasting who's at risk from a hurricane or tropical storm have been dramatic over the past 25 years, said Judge. Back then, "the cone of uncertainty was huge, it encompassed almost the whole state of Florida," he said. "Now it's about 1/10th the size of what it was in 1992."
The new graphics include an interactive graphic for storm surge watches and warnings and an experimental graphic illustrating the "earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical storm-force winds."
GOES 16 has been amazing meteorologists across the country with its improved satellite images of thunderstorms and lightning. The satellite offers coverage five times faster than other available satellites with four times better resolution and three times more channels for catching weather imagery, giving forecasters a much more detailed image of the structure and features of storm systems.
Also new this year, the Hurricane Center will have the option this year of issuing advisories, watches and warnings for disturbances that haven't yet reached tropical cyclone status, but which may pose a threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions within 48 hours.
The interactive storm surge watch and warning graphics were used on experimental basis last year. They'll be fully operational this season, with the Weather Service issuing watches and warnings when there's a risk of life-threatening inundation from the sea or a risk of an area being isolated by surge-related flooding.
Storm surge — blamed for nearly 50 percent of deaths during hurricanes — is often hard to understand and doesn't always coincide with the path and timing of the center of a tropical system. During Matthew, the Flagler County coast experienced one of the largest storm surges along the Southeastern United States coast. NOAA scientists concluded the combined surge and tide along the coast of Flagler and St. Johns counties was about 5 to 7 feet, topped by large waves.
The surging ocean rushed down beach approaches and flooded entire neighborhoods, surprising many who chose to ignore evacuation warnings and ride out the storm. Given the door-to-door rescues required after the storm passed, Garten said the new advisories will help get "a crucial message" to residents.
"It puts it into perspective," he said. "Storm surge is hard to visualize. If I tell you your house is going to be under 9 feet of water it's so hard to comprehend."
But, he added, residents aren't the only ones who have a hard time visualizing the amount of seawater that poured into coastal areas in the north end of the county.
He said he had a hard time convincing FEMA investigators until he showed them the video of rescue workers going from house to house on jet skis after Matthew passed.
The Hurricane Center also is introducing an experimental new graphic estimating the earliest potential arrival time of tropical storm-force winds. The colorful graphic will help residents and emergency officials in the path of a storm evaluate when their pre-storm preparations should be complete, the Hurricane Center stated.
As another hurricane season approaches, something else weighs on Garten's mind.
"I want people to understand they did not survive a Cat 3 storm (during Matthew). They did not," he said. "We barely had Cat 1 winds."
Peak gusts were 87 mph along the northern Flagler County coast and 94 mph in Volusia County.
But apparently Matthew did leave an impression on many.
The American Automotive Association reported this week that Matthew apparently inspired more Floridians to prepare for storm season. A AAA survey showed three of every four people surveyed said they were making advance preparations, an increase of 17 percent over a similar survey last year.
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