The Human-Caused, Ticking Time Bomb

One of the more unpredictable things in our lives is the weather — at least the long-term weather. I listened to a weather forecaster and professor talk about Hurricane Irma and how 10 days out of land fall on the U.S. mainland, the forecasters had the hurricane track modeled to be coming toward the mainland and making that hard right-hand turn north, into Florida. Pretty amazing and not something that could have been done 10 or 20 years ago.

If you go out more than 10 days, say 50-100 years, the forecast models are a bit murkier. People don't pay attention for many reasons and thus we have this: Hurricane Irma: Florida’s Overdevelopment Has Created a Ticking Time Bomb. We have expectations about what sea rise might be in a few decades from now, but we act as though these predictions will have no impact on us. 

You can blame our problems on the weather, or I think we should be pointing toward human behavior with time, money and pleasure being directly part of the problem.

• Companies think in terms of quarterly profits (three months)
• Elected officials think in "terms" of four-year election cycles
• Builders and developers are doing what they do best and what people want
• The average citizen is oblivious to long-term risks and wants a pleasant place to live

The situation is only going to get worse before it gets better. People continue to move toward the coasts, increasing their risks and taxing the ability of insurers to cover losses and governments to provide services and natural resources.

While Hurricane Harvey and Irma were both bad disasters, there are worst ones to come. Perhaps Hurricane Maria, now headed toward Puerto Rico might be the "third time is the charm" for what breaks the back of FEMA, our insurance industry and, unfortunately, the hopes and dreams of tens of thousands of people who have moved into harm's way.

Claire Rubin shared the link above.