Internet Traffic Jam by 2010?

Internet usage could outstrip network capacity worldwide in a little more than two years, according to "The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web," a study conducted by Nemertes Research. This study -- the first-ever to assess Internet infrastructure and model current/projected traffic patterns independent of one another -- indicates that Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years.

Like the physical transportation system, which includes freeways as well as country roads, the Internet consists of high-speed connections (fiber and underground cable) and lower-speed links (copper and coaxial connections), with traffic handled by switching equipment.

As with the physical transportation system, an Internet user's experience is defined by both the capacity of the high-speed connections (the "core") and the lower-speed links. If the freeway is empty, but local roads are congested, users will spend most of their time stuck in traffic at the edges -- something the study predicts will occur with increasing frequency starting in 2010.

The financial investment required to "bridge the gap" between demand and capacity ranges from $42 billion to $55 billion in the U.S., primarily to be spent on broadband access capacity; this is roughly 60-70 percent above and beyond the $72 billion service providers are already planning to invest. Required investment globally is estimated at $137 billion, again primarily in broadband access.

"This groundbreaking analysis identifies a critical issue facing the Internet -- that we must take the necessary steps to build out network capacity or potentially face Internet gridlock that could wreak havoc on Internet services," said Larry Irving, co-chairman of the Internet Innovation Alliance (IIA). "It's important to note that even if we make the investment necessary between now and 2010, we still might not be prepared for the next killer application or new Internet-dependent business like Google or YouTube. The Nemertes study is evidence the exaflood is coming."

Voice and bandwidth-intensive applications such as streaming and interactive video, peer-to-peer file transfer and music downloads and file sharing are redefining the Internet. Nearly 75 percent of U.S. Internet users watched an average of 158 minutes of online video in May and viewed more than 8.3 billion video streams, according to research by comScore. Additionally, wireless devices such as cell phones, Blackberrys and gaming accessories provide consumers ever-increasing access to the Internet, exponentially accelerating consumption of Internet bandwidth according to the Nemertes study.

The findings indicate that by 2010, the Internet's capacity will not likely accommodate user demand. As a result, users could increasingly encounter Internet "brownouts" or interruptions to the applications they've become accustomed to using on the Internet. For example, it may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase or it may take longer to download the latest video from YouTube. Overall, the impact of this inadequate infrastructure will be primarily to slow down the pace of innovation. The next Amazon, Google or YouTube might not arise -- not from a lack of user demand, but because of insufficient infrastructure preventing applications and companies from emerging.

"How we use the Internet today is fundamentally different than it was even three years ago, with the advent of bandwidth-intensive applications like video-on-demand," said Bruce Mehlman, co-chair of the IIA. "We need to take steps now to ensure continued improvement of the broadband infrastructure in North America meets the projected demand. To encourage the necessary investment to ensure a positive user experience, it is important for the right tax, commercial and policy environment to be in place. The Internet is a critical global resource and our hope is that this study helps us understand what can and should be done today to ensure its integrity and usability for generations to come."