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Experts: Deliveries By Drones? Sure, Why Not?

With San Diego named as one of the FAA’s ten cities to study drone integration, product and food deliveries could be an area of interest.

(TNS) — Question: The U.S. Department of Transportation recently announced San Diego would participate in its drone integration program, which may include things such as food delivery. Will it be economically feasible to deliver things by drones?

Phil Blair, Manpower

YES: I'm thinking some day babies might be delivered by drones!

Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research

YES: Besides usage in media, filmmaking or marketing, and by emergency responders, product delivery is among multiple applications for drones. Costs to deliver products will be included in prices. Advancing smart technologies, like driverless cars, may ensure safer, securer, more efficient and non-intrusive drone operations, with benefit of helping alleviate congested roads. Commercial viabilities are seemingly limited only by our imagination. Relaxing restrictions requiring permits and allowing flights beyond-line-of-sight and at night makes this more accessible.

David Ely, San Diego State University

YES: There are still significant technical and regulatory obstacles to overcome before drone deliveries to retail customers become commonplace. However, companies like Amazon and UPS are working to develop the needed technology and infrastructure; thus, they must believe that drones can lower delivery costs for at least some products in some geographic markets. Customers are demanding speedier delivery, which creates economic incentives for companies to explore making drones part of their distribution systems.

Gina Champion-Cain, American National Investments

YES: The concept of drone delivery is born from a never-ending quest to reduce labor costs. Technological research once intended to increase productivity and worker safety has now solidly focused on removing the worker all together. Where the nexus of current delivery labor cost meets drone delivery cost, senders will find economic value. For now, that niche would include replacement parts or vaccine delivery, but not necessarily your next pizza.

Alan Gin, University of San Diego

YES: It might not be feasible at the moment, but drone technology is improving rapidly. As the technology improves, the cost to make deliveries will drop dramatically, making it economically viable to deliver products by drone. After the cost barrier is resolved, other obstacles that need to be dealt with include consumer acceptance and government regulations. The former will likely be more easily achieved, as consumers will enjoy the increased speed of delivery. It may take a while before the appropriate regulatory framework is developed.

James Hamilton, UC San Diego

YES: In certain cases. Zipline, a San Francisco-based startup, is already using drones to deliver medical supplies in Africa, where costs of other methods can be prohibitive. And using drones for last-leg delivery of lightweight packages from central depots may provide faster delivery than some U.S. customers are willing to pay for. But there are still significant regulatory and safety issues to be resolved. We’ll see how opinion reacts when these start crashing into people or vehicles.

Gary London, London Group of Realty Advisors

YES: Drones will be a loss leader as a delivery system until an economy of scale is achieved. That will happen when they work out the technological and practical bugs, which I assume is the basis for the drone integration program. A good way to look at this I think is how Amazon built their delivery platform, through time, consumer comfort and technology. It took them over a decade to stabilize that platform which they now profit through. Expect a similar path with drone systems. But it is great that San Diegans will get to be early adapters.

Norm Miller, University of San Diego

YES: But if we have too many some will shout, “lookout above,” how extremely annoying. But with deliveries to make, they’re not toying. Next the drone thieves will appear, grabbing all your pizza and all your gear. That will put a wrench in the economics. Rethink the logistics and put down those comics. Try a new system combining trucks and drones. Fly only when close enough to see your phones.

Jamie Moraga, IntelliSolutions

YES: It’s great news that San Diego was selected as one of the test sites for the FAA’s Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration Pilot Program. This helps put San Diego in the forefront of this emerging and disruptive technology. If drone delivery can reduce costs, improve efficiency, while still maintaining public safety, then it should be an economically feasible alternative. Drone delivery is expected to bring billions of dollars of economic benefit and create thousands of new jobs in the next decade.

Austin Neudecker, Rev

YES: The cost to build and operate drones continues to decrease while the cost of labor increases. Whether it is driverless vehicles or drones, these technologies will become a more efficient (cost and speed) means of delivering goods. The question is really by when? I applaud San Diego's willingness to experiment and learn what works. Regardless, the trend toward automation is inevitable. We must face difficult decisions that balance safety, employment and profits.

Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates

NO: Drone deliveries of pizza would be very cool — but not financially feasible. Privacy concerns, coupled with cyber liability due to information captured by the drone and stored in the clouds add to these concerns. Potential accidents are a real issue and drop locations, particularly in dense downtown areas are a challenge for drones. The big problem is the last mile and nobody wants to drive a mile to pick up their pizza delivery.

Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University

YES: It could be if technological and regulatory hurdles can be overcome. A new drone air traffic control system will need to be developed to coordinate large numbers of drones and other airborne items. Noise reduction will need to be achieved and consumer privacy concerns assuaged. Line-of-sign requirements now required for operators by the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) may need to be eased to make drones competitive with traditional delivery systems. Still, the upside potential exists.

John Sarkisian, Motion Ventures

YES: Unmanned vehicle systems will make economic sense as one solution to the “last mile” dilemma facing operators in urban areas. We need to think in three dimensions when considering movement of people and goods in densely populated areas. In the near future, we will have various ground level transportations systems supplemented by below ground and aerial delivery systems. Eventually all of these systems will be unmanned.

Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health

YES: But not in the near future because there is so much to be done first. As with autonomous cars, the first step for drones would be perfecting the technology, then establishing regulations and safeguards to allow for their safe operation, and finally developing business models to translate the science to practical applications that will generate a profit. I do believe our scientists and engineers will eventually overcome the obstacles and will create effective drones and processes.

©2018 The San Diego Union-Tribune Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.