Disaster management is going to occupy more and more of government's time and resources in the decades ahead -- that was the clear underlying message running through four days of presentations at the 15th World Conference on Disaster Management held this week, July 10-13, in Toronto, Canada.
Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan
"Last year's hurricanes called for the largest natural disaster response in the long 125 year history of the American Red Cross," Evans noted. "And regrettably this year's hurricane season has gotten off to a difficult start. By July 5th, Arlene, Bret and Cindy had all reached tropical storm status. And Dennis came ashore as barely a Category 3 after having caused a large swath of damage in the Caribbean. It is the earliest for so many named storms in recorded history. At the same time, our wildfire season in the Western United States has gotten off to an unfortunately strong start as well."
American Red Cross President and CEO, Marsha Evans
According to many of the attending scientists and disaster management experts, climate change is actually producing a dramatic increase in annual number of extreme weather events such a hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts, all of which are destroying more and more property each year. Statistical graphs show a steady increase over the last half century, from about 800 serious events a year to now well over 4,500 annually. And if this trend continues, something that most environmental scientists across the globe are now convinced is likely due to global warming, that number will multiply many times in the coming decades.
In addition, scientists now believe far more deaths are likely to occur in the next few years as a result of a pandemic -- something that is now considered almost a certainty because of the mutation of viruses and the appearance of drug-resistant strains of bacteria such as plague. "When an influenza pandemic occurs [as a result of virus mutation], we won't have a vaccine at least until the second wave hits," Dr. Sheela Basrur, the expert who lead the response to SARS outbreak in Canada, told reporters at a press conference. Preparation and public information therefore is critical.
A Vital Role for IT
Disaster management is not simply about emergency response and recovery. A big part of the goal is mitigating disasters, lessening the impact through preparation. And this is now being extended to prevention as well, something that will be added to International Association of Emergency Managers standards next year.
Part of effective mitigation must include long-range plans for replacing or building new infrastructure so that it is more disaster resistant. And IT planning should be approached in a similar fashion because of the increasing reliance upon IT in the government and private sectors.
There is no doubt that information technology now plays an ever-increasing role in most aspects of disaster management and the IT component was significantly increased at this year's conference.
For example, information sharing is vital in all disaster preparation, response and recovery, something emphasized by Peter Doolan, vice president of technology, Oracle public sector. Today, to accomplish this, technology is no longer the problem he said. All the needed solutions exist to allow secure, timely and effective information sharing across silos and jurisdictions. The problem now is implementing the existing technologies.
Continuity planning for government, including IT operations, is now entering a new phase, with entire states in the U.S. now starting to develop statewide continuity plans. This is something that many large businesses have undertaken in earnest in recent years. One major company, for instance, has bought all employees desktop computers for their homes and insists they work from home one day a month. This is so the staff gets used to the idea that they can do their jobs from home. If disaster strikes and employees are housebound for extended periods of time, they will be prepared to continue operations from there. This may be the kind of thing that governments must also begin thinking about. How are they going to continue vital services in the wake of many different possible scenarios, including the possibility that their employees may not be able to physically come to work for extended periods following the emergence of a pandemic?
If anything, IT's importance will only increase as we better prepare for the growing number of disasters that are now expected. For one thing, a vital lesson learned in multiple disasters in recent years is that is that disaster preparation, mitigation and response must actively involve the affected communities as partners. It is not simply up to the government or even NGOs like the American Red Cross. Much has to be done by citizens as well.
"In the last 3 years, I've learned five important truths about the business of preventing, preparing for and responding to disasters," Evans said. "And without having taken these truths into account, my organization could not have successfully responded to four back-to-back hurricanes and we would not be prepared today to address whatever demands come our way. First, all disasters are local. Second, speed and structure really do matter. Third, collaboration is critical. Forth, preparedness is paramount. And lastly, learning and change must be constant."
It isn't much of a stretch to recognize the vital role that IT can play in each of these. But to maximize IT benefits, CIOs and others in public-sector technology will require both foresight and an understanding of the scope of the disaster challenges we now face. And for new disaster threats in particular, one of the biggest obstacles to adequate preparation is a failure of imagination. People just don't really believe it could happen until it is too late.
