How Can Donald Trump Win in November?
To say that the 2016 Presidential Election process has been "one for the record books" is perhaps an understatement, particularly with the advent of Donald Trump into the Republican Party primary election cycle. The Republican Establishment, whoever they are, believe that a Donald Trump candidate would be a disaster for their party in a November election, with his candidacy dragging down the rest of the "down ballot" candidates to defeat.
Super Tuesday(s) will likely settle the matter. Forty-eight hours from now we'll know if the Trump momentum continues or if there are cracks in the campaign. However, it is likely to be all over except the shouting and analysis come two weeks from now when another bunch of big states hold their primaries.
I'm certainly not a political analyst, but it appears to me that the Trump movement, if you want to call it that, has come from circumstances such as: an extremely large number of Republican candidates to begin with and then a section of the population who are fed up with the current political situation and are looking for a change agent who is not a politician.
Let's imagine Trump is the Republican Party nominee for president. How could he possibly win — most likely against Hillary Clinton and with such a high unfavorable rating with many segments of the American people? Which brings us to the non-political disaster that could put Trump over the top. It would take a disaster! That would be, not a natural disaster, but a large terrorist attack like Paris, or a continuing series of smaller attacks like we saw in San Bernardino. Since we Americans have such short term memories, these attacks would need to occur in the fall, September-October. If earlier, we'll only be thinking about the football and the World Series come October.
Many people think we are in a very unstable time in our history, either with foreign affairs or social and economic times here in the United States. When people are afraid, they will go for the "strong man" leader who professes that he can solve the issue, in this case it would be "keeping America safe" again. Fear changes how people think and, I also believe, vote. History has proven that the "strong leader" persona is one that resonates when people are afraid.
Whatever happens between now and Nov. 8, 2016 looks to be a continuing soap opera with twists and turns we could never imagine.