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Counterterrorism: The Needle in the Haystack (Opinion)

After spending about $100 billion a year on counterterrorism since 9/11, should we consider ourselves lucky that more attacks haven’t occurred or was the money well spent?

9.11 flag at Ground Zero thumb
“Looking for a violent extremist is like looking for the tip of the needle in a haystack.”

That was one of many notable quotes from the National Homeland Security Conference in Los Angeles in June. The conference featured experts from a variety of disciplines, including medical, education, law enforcement and homeland security experts from around the world.

They weighed in on the biggest threats facing the world (cybersecurity and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome were two of biggest perceived threats), the function of fusion centers, whether we’ve been lucky that more terrorist acts like the Boston bombings haven’t occurred since 9/11 and will we be so lucky in the future.

Since 9/11, 18 people have been killed in terror attacks in the U.S. Most experts predicted more, saying it was a matter of time before lone wolves like the Boston bombers (there’s still debate about whether they were really lone wolves) would be led by Internet sites like Inspire magazine to carry out acts of terror.

So after spending about $100 billion a year on counterterrorism efforts since 9/11, should we consider ourselves lucky that more attacks haven’t occurred or was the money well spent? The answer matters because there won’t be that much money spent on counterterrorism in the near future.

The answer varies with most pundits and experts saying “a little of both.” We were certainly lucky in Boston on many counts. The death toll almost certainly would have been higher had it not been for the medical personnel already on hand for the marathon. My opinion is that the bombers weren’t that smart. They chose the target just days prior to the event. If they’d planned more they may have been able to choose a better time and location to detonate the blasts, killing more people.

The truth is, we’re better at detection, but as one speaker said, “We can’t get them all.”

Another speaker at the conference, a longtime expert on such matters, said the reduction in dollars spent on counterterrorism is as big a threat as there is in terms of the ability to detect and prevent terrorism.

On the other hand, there were others who said there are more pressing problems facing the country, such as a pandemic, gang violence, drugs and child pornography, and that fusion centers should focus on those areas as well as terrorism.

It’s impossible to know the extent of future threats but experts say terrorism fatigue, complacency and lack of money could drop the focus on terror, leaving us vulnerable to attacks like the Boston bombings or worse. It’s already a difficult road trying to find that tip of the needle in a haystack. Will it get worse? I guess we’ll find out. 



Jim McKay is the editor of Emergency Management magazine.