This article is not for the faint of brain.
The paper Challenges of Dealing with Uncertainty has sections in it that I had to reread a couple of times to try and understand the concepts being expressed. That is why I called this not for the "faint of brain." You will need to concentrate when reading the document.
Now that I've scared 50 percent of the possible readers from reading the paper, I still recommend it. It is an example of the more thoughtful and scientific type of information that seasoned emergency managers need to be reading in order to expand their thinking. This is not the blocking and tackling of planning and exercises, it is strategy for the disaster resilience game.
Is what Bob Prieto lays out totally correct? I don't know for sure, but much of what he stated resonated for me and my experience.