Two local researchers are developing a computerized disaster planning simulator that will model a multiplayer video game and help plan and train emergency responders for that possibility of a catastrophic flood, according to a report in The Canadian Press.
The researchers have tested an early model that suggested it would take 15 hours to evacuate the densely populated area if the ocean rose between about 12 and 26 feet. Narrow roads would hinder the operation, and the early model looked just at evacuation with cars and didn’t take into account variables, such as people using school or municipal buses, nor did it account for the possibility of widespread panic.
“Our starting point is assuming rational behavior,” said Dalhousie University professor Kevin Quigley. “But if you look at what happens typically, there’s unpredictable stuff that happens. These things have to be thrown into the mix, as well as people’s emotional reactions.”
Quigley called the simulator a “bare-bones model” so far and said the target of a massive, multiplayer online roll-playing game is two years away. “People are highly optimistic on video games. They believe they can solve problems: They can slay the dragon, capture the castle and save everybody. We need to get that kind of optimistic attitude in solving our public policy problems,” said Quigley, an expert on risk at the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance.
He said as this is the kind of tool young people joining the emergency management profession will feel comfortable using.
The current model includes municipal data from automated travel logs of more than 1,200 living and working in the area. Halifax’s emergency management coordinator, Barry Manual, is eager to test the simulator. Evacuations are one of the hardest things to simulate. We know where the choke points are, but we don’t know what the variables are. I don’t want to wait, I want it now.”
