Lake water levels are already 19 inches higher than average, and are on track to rise another 11 inches by May 14, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
With water levels that high, officials warn, low-lying shoreline communities could see flooding, sewer system failure and possibly evacuations. The high waters are also submerging docks and piers, posing hazards to boaters, and are speeding up lakeside erosion, threatening shoreline property and destabilizing banks and break-walls.
During a press conference Thursday at the Olcott Yacht Club, about a dozen municipal, county and state elected officials urged boaters to beware flooded debris and residents to avoid the weakened banks.
Behind them, waves rolled over a nearby pier and crashed up against the break-wall of the yacht club, nearly cresting it.
"We have serious concerns with the rising lake levels. ... We don't want anybody getting hurt because the water levels are so high," said Undersheriff Michael Filicetti, adding that the sheriff's office would utilize inmates to fill sandbags if needed.
Jonathan Schultz, director of emergency services for Niagara County, said that 30,000 sandbags have been moved to Olcott, with another 30,000 on the way. Over the weekend, county crews — with help from the state Office of Emergency Management and Department of Transportation — will be filling and deploying those sandbags to low-lying areas.
Meanwhile, local fire companies are mobilizing and deploying water-pumps. However, with rising water levels, Schultz said, the pumps may be "futile efforts."
"We are getting ready for the worse that's yet to come," Schultz said.
Later in the press conference, Schultz said he anticipates some evacuations will be necessary.
Many local residents claim the waters are the highest they have been since 1973 — and possibly even worse than then.
Olcott resident Ann Raskoff, who lives along the shore, said that the waters have crested the break-wall on her property — something she has never seen since constructing the wall in the '70s.
"It's just unbelievable," she said. "As homeowners we've done a good job to stabilize the property, but not to these historic water levels. It's scary."
Many officials raised concern the high waters will wash away expensive shoreline property, hurting municipalities' tax-base as well as residents' finances and possibly their homes. Others raised concern about the future of the county's $30 million sport-fishing industry.
"They are watching their futures fall into the lake," Newfane Supervisor Tim Horanburg said.
County and state officials pegged blame for the water levels squarely on Plan 2014, which they say calls for higher high water levels and lower lows.
Proponents of the plan say it benefits ecosystems, better maintains system-wide levels for navigation, extends the recreational boating season and slightly increases hydropower production.
But critics say the damage falls disproportionately on the U.S. side of the lake, because the local shoreline contains looser sediment and prevailing winds tend to push water-levels higher on this side.
"This is why every elected official in this room called this plan a disaster," said state Sen. Robert Ortt of the high water levels.
Under Plan 2014, the lake levels are still about 1 inch below the threshold at which the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board of Control can deviate from scheduled outflow at the Moses-Saunders Dam, along the St. Lawrence River between Massena and Cornwall, Ont.
Increasing outflow at the dam would relieve Lake Ontario, which empties into the St. Lawrence River. Yet it would also increase water levels at downstream communities in Canada, such as Montreal, some of which are already experiencing flooding.
"It's too late," to release the water, said Legislator David Godfrey.
Godfrey criticized Plan 2014 for not allowing the control board the freedom to increase outflow in anticipation of high precipitation and water levels. "Plan 2014 says, 'Thou shall not do anything until the trigger points are hit," said Godfrey, adding that the trigger points are too high. "With the old plan, we had latitude. The new plan is fixed."
However, Keith R. Koralewski, a technical advisor for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, said the control board could not have predicted high precipitation in March.
Koralewski added that during the first full week of April, Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River saw the highest inflow of water since record-keeping began in 1900 — largely a result of storms that brought nearly 3 inches of rainfall.
"There's nothing that the board would have seen in January, February or March to cause them to see they would need to release water sooner," said Koralewski, who is also an alternate regulation representative on the IJC.
What's more, earlier this year, water-levels were trending similar to last year — and in 2016, water levels peaked in April, Koralewski added.
And while the U.S. Army Corp does predict water to continue rising nearly a foot by May 14, there may be some relief on the horizon.
At the end of next week, water levels are expected to recede in the Ottawa River, which divides Ontario and Quebec and enters the St. Lawrence near Montreal. That in turn will allow the control board to increase outflow at the Moses-Saunders dam, without flooding the millions who live downstream, Koralewski said.
Meantime, Godfrey called for the IJC to release funds for remediation of local shorelines, and for the state Department of Environmental Conservation to expedite the permitting process for residents who want to reinforce their shorelines.
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