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September 12, 2011 By News Staff
Are you waiting for the tipping point that will signal the demise of the desktop computer?
If so, 2015 could be the year, according to projections released Monday, Sept. 12, by International Data Corp. (IDC).
By 2015, adoption of smartphones and tablets in the U.S. will result in more users accessing the Internet through mobile devices than via desktop PCs, according to IDC’s forecast. The number of mobile Internet users will grow by a compound annual growth rate of 16.6 percent from 2010 to 2015.
The company’s projection of worldwide online behavior predicts that “the impact of smartphone and, especially, media tablet adoption will be so great that the number of users accessing the Internet through PCs will first stagnate and then slowly decline,” a trend that will also be seen in Western Europe and Japan. Also by 2015, the worldwide population with access to the Internet will increase to 2.7 billion, an increase of 700 million from 2010. The semi-annual projections are built upon 150,000 data points gathered from 40 countries.
A separate study released last month from comScore estimated that 234 million Americans who are 13 years old and over use mobile devices, and 80 million of them own smartphones.
Those numbers, combined with IDC’s new data, indicate it’s only a matter of time before more Americans are using their mobile devices than PCs to access the Internet.
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The adoption of smartphones and tablets in the U.S will make it easier for people traveling to access the web from anywhere in the U.S by 2015 as mobile web service grows. The Business world is always going to need the web at a touch of the button. PCs may decline for a while, until user can purchase their mobile devices. PCs in the office and at home will always have their place. Under the hood PCs pack more multi processor power, video, ram, and hard drive storage to tackle most any task. Their would be no mobile web service with out PCs for web site design and web servers. The business world can not and will not run their companies using only smart phones and tables.
I agree with Jeffrey. In addition, government offices and big business needs the protection that these mobiles cannot offer.
I agree with both Jack and Jeff. I believe all IT professionals would agree that Internet access has been simplified through the use of tablet and smart phones. But as Jack pointed out, without PCs or servers, internet development would come to a screeching halt. So now that IDC has predicted that "access increases" by tablet and smartphones will eventually dwarf PC internet access, who is studying the migration of business migration from PCs to these devices? I think the trend will be much slower given the lack of the robust needs of the back office business needs, but agree there will be pockets where the new technology will be actively embraced. As an IT leader, looking for these opportunities to put business functionality in the hands of my business customers would be information of significant value. Early adopters, lessons learned and target audience studies on new mobility would be a much needed article.
PCs are still the best platform for gaming, with far greater power, performance, and screen size. Nothing can touch them in that catagory.
Of course mobile devices are going to exceed PCs in terms of the numbers used to access the internet, but that hardly constitutes the end of the PC era. The processing power offered by the less mobile PC platform is still required to do most of the actual work that computers are so proficient at. Surfing the web doesn't require a lot of horsepower.
I think the hypothesis that the number of tablets and smartphones accessing the internet will overtake the number of desktops accesing it is true. I am not sure this will happen by 2015, however. I do not think that means the demise of the desktop. I picture a reality where each member of a family owns a tablet, smartphone, and either a laptop or desktop. In that scenario, 2 out of 3 devices will be mobile. Therefore the limit of the equation of devices personally owned will be 66 percent (a majority but not the death of the PC). Some influences on this number maybe: additional desktops, laptops and/or mobile devices owned for business purposes. The main factor influencing the issue is not processor power or features available to desktop users, it is space. Desktop monitors are much bigger than mobile screens can comfortably be and even bigger than laptop screens can be. Who wants to stare at a 6" X 8" monitor 10" from your face all day?
A constantly growing portion of the population has a hard enough time with seeing text on 21 inch screens (and they are getting younger as each year passes). Let me know when the portable 48 incher goes on sale.