But it's early yet in what might be called a slow-motion disaster as floodwaters from Toledo Bend Reservoir move downriver toward Sabine Lake and the open Gulf of Mexico.
As of Tuesday evening, eastbound traffic could still cross into Louisiana, though Texas officials were prepared to barricade it if the swollen river crept onto its lanes. Westbound traffic to cross into Texas, meanwhile, was shunted north to Interstate 20 in Shreveport, Louisiana. That hours-long detour is expected to last through the weekend.
The Sabine River could crest where the states abut at 1 a.m. Thursday and won't recede to at least Tuesday's levels until Sunday, the National Weather Service predicted.
"The only thing I can say is I-10 westbound will be closed until the water has gone down and we check to make sure the roadway is safe," said Texas Department of Transportation spokeswoman Sarah Dupre. "We are prepared if that has to happen (to eastbound lanes). We can't say when or if."
To add to the misery, at least a half-inch more rain is expected Thursday and Friday, the weather service predicted. It's a drop in the bucket compared with last week's deluge, which dumped 18 inches directly over Toledo Bend. That rain was added to what coursed down the upper Sabine from Northeast Texas into the lake.
There is no record of whether Interstate 10 between Texas and Louisiana has ever been closed by flood for an extended period, though sporadic closures happened in the 1997 ice storm and during Hurricane Ike in 2008, which was mostly a storm-surge event as the storm pushed in water from the Gulf, swamping areas from Bridge City to downtown Orange.
Disrupted commerce
Closing the interstate because of this flood carries a potentially serious impact on commerce.Union Pacific Railroad is noticing a "domino effect" across its network as it awaits floodwaters to recede from Southeast Texas. Railroad officials are already anticipating repairs to five down rail lines that connect Louisiana either to Texas or Arkansas.
"It presents a real challenge because we basically cannot get in or out of Louisiana right now," Union Pacific spokeswoman Raquel Espinoza said. "Any issue in one area can produce a domino effect across our network."
The railroad company, which operates 8,500 locomotives across 23 states, is telling some customers to expect delays in excess of 48 hours, Espinoza said.
Truck traffic carrying perishables and other consumer goods will face additional expense, said M. Ray Perryman, a Waco-based economist who has performed several economic studies in Southeast Texas.
Rail traffic presents more of a challenge if there are extended delays or damage to tracks and bridges, he said.
"Cargo held up due to the flooding will still reach its destination, albeit a little later than expected," he said.
"It takes a really large disruption, such as the dock strike in Los Angeles-Long Beach about 15 years ago or the trackage issues at the Port of Houston during the Union Pacific-Southern Pacific merger, to really move the needle on overall growth," Perryman said.
"For example, a truck costs about $100 per hour to operate, not including fuel, so rerouting does lead to additional expense," he said.
Traffic count on Interstate 10 at Texas 62 in Orange County is about 62,000 vehicles per day, according to TxDOT.
The percentage of trucks in that vehicle count isn't known, Dupre said.
Rerouted traffic
Disruption is evident — north, south, east and west.Because Interstate 10's passability is fragile — it was closed, then opened and closed again and could be blocked in both directions today — authorities re-routed eastbound interstate traffic to U.S. 69 northbound in an effort to usher motorists toward Interstate 20 in Northeast Texas near Marshall if they were Louisiana-bound.
State officials were aware of — but not promoting — possible detour travel on Texas 82, a narrow, two-lane highway connecting Port Arthur to Holly Beach, La.
"We are not encouraging this route," the Port Arthur Police Department said in a press release. "There will be heavy traffic and major delays."
Acme Trucking's Beaumont terminal was sending drivers along 82 when I-10 East closed Tuesday morning. If that option were not available, the company that transits oilfield equipment, pipes and other goods, would either suspend deliveries or charge customers for the additional 300-plus miles.
"It would be a long haul to go to Shreveport and then come around to Lake Charles," said Gail Cantu, manager of a terminal that sends and receives 20-25 trucks a day. The larger Acme operation, based in Gretna, Louisiana, sends up to 1,000 trucks a day across state lines, she said.
On the road to Lumberton, where motorists are being officially rerouted, traffic speeds decline from 75 mph to 45 mph. Fourteen traffic lights are spread along the two highways running north through the Hardin County town.
They may be configured to show green for longer periods of time to deal with the possible influx of drivers, police department Capt. Forrest Cobb said. That could be replicated throughout all the small towns expecting interstate-detour traffic.
"If it gets really bad on us, we're going to turn our lights non-stop go," said Paul Brister, chief of police in the small Jasper County town of Kirbyville, which closed classes Tuesday because of traffic concerns.
Extent of the problem
It's not just trucks and trains or even ships delayed by the interstate closure.Marching bands from Port Neches-Groves High School and Lumberton were performing at Disney World in Orlando, Fla., during Spring Break and the PN-G Indian band is scheduled to return today, said PN-G's superintendent Rodney Cavness.
"It's the whole band and chaperones. A ton of people," he said. "We're going to do the safe thing and get them back safely."
Even if that's sending them up to Shreveport, across the river and back down to The Reservation that way, he said.
The flood also affected shipborne commerce Wednesday.
Local ports said the current in the Sabine-Neches Ship Channel is stronger and kept at least one oil tanker from entering the channel from offshore on Wednesday, the Sabine Pilots service said.
Also, barge tows, which normally require one tug, now need two to push against the current.
Perryman said most flood-related costs will remain fairly minimal in the overall economy if the disruption is short-lived.
An example of acute disruption is the January 2010 collision of two vessels in the Sabine-Neches Ship Channel that prevented crude oil deliveries for almost a week and left area refineries with dwindling supply.
Truck cargoes can run on alternate routes, but railroads don't have a choice, Perryman said.
"The Kansas City Southern railroad ships a variety of goods through the area and lengthy delays - if there is extensive damage to the rail lines - could lead to mounting costs," he said.
A longer disruption on Interstate 10 or for trains could loom costlier, particularly for shippers and for those awaiting cargoes, similar to delaying exit and entry from regional ports, Perryman said.
If major repairs are needed in the flood-affected areas, reconstruction spending will increase, and it's a high price to pay for that kind of recovery spending, he said.
———
©2016 the Beaumont Enterprise (Beaumont, Texas)
Visit the Beaumont Enterprise (Beaumont, Texas) at www.beaumontenterprise.com
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
