The development, announced and launched last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, comes as Louisiana reels from one of the biggest floods in its history.
The system, called the National Weather Model, runs on NOAA’s powerful new Cray XC40 supercomputer. It uses data from more than 8,000 U.S. Geological Survey gauges to simulate conditions for 2.7 million locations across the U.S. mainland.
Officials said the more detailed and timely flood data could give people more time to prepare or evacuate when potentially damaging flooding threatens.
The model generates hourly forecasts for the nation's entire river network. Previously, NOAA was only able to forecast streamflow for 4,000 locations every few hours.
The system also improves NOAA’s ability to meet the needs of its emergency managers, reservoir operators, first responders, recreationists, farmers, barge operators and others with more-accurate, detailed, frequent and expanded water information.
A number of disastrous floods have affected parts of the nation in recent years, including the ongoing flooding in Louisiana, accentuating the importance of more-detailed water forecasts to help people prepare, officials said.
“With a changing climate, we’re experiencing more prolonged droughts and a greater frequency of record-breaking floods across the country, underscoring the nation’s need for expanded water information,” Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service, said in a news release. “The National Water Model will improve resiliency to water extremes in American communities. And as our forecasts get better, so will our planning and protection of life and property when there’s either too much water, too little or poor water quality.”
Initially, the model will benefit flash-flood forecasts and provide water forecast information for many rural areas that aren’t covered now. As the model evolves, it will provide “zoomed-in,” street-level forecasts and inundation maps to improve flood warnings and will expand to include water-quality forecasts.
“Through our partnership with the research, academic and federal water community, NOAA is bringing the state-of-the-science in water forecasting and prediction to bear operationally,” Thomas Graziano, director of NOAA’s new Office of Water Prediction at the National Weather Service, said in the release. “Over the past 50 years, our capabilities have been limited to forecasting river flow at a relatively limited number of locations. This model expands our forecast locations 700 times and generates several additional water variables, such as soil moisture, runoff, stream velocity, and other parameters to produce a more comprehensive picture of water behavior across the country.”
The underlying technology for the model was developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a nonprofit science consortium of more than 100 North American colleges and universities. NOAA developed and implemented the computer model along with the center, the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Sciences, the National Science Foundation and others.
The new system "gives us a continuous picture of all of the waterways in the contiguous United States," David Gochis, a National Center for Atmospherica Research scientist who helped lead the model's development, said in a news release. "By generating detailed forecast guidance that is hours to weeks ahead, it will help officials make more-informed decisions about reservoir levels and river navigation, as well as alerting them to dangerous events like flash floods."
The model simulates current and future conditions on rivers and streams along points two miles apart across the entire country. Along with an hourly analysis of current water conditions, the National Water Model generates three predictions: an hourly 0- to 15-hour short-range forecast, a daily 0- to 10-day medium-range forecast, and a daily 0- to 30-day long-range forecast.
It will help local, state and federal officials better manage reservoirs and waterways, improve navigation along major rivers, plan for droughts, anticipate water-quality problems and monitor wildlife and fisheries, center officials said. By providing a national view, this will also help the Federal Emergency Management Agency deploy resources more effectively in cases of simultaneous emergencies, such as a hurricane in the Gulf Coast and flooding in California.
"We've never had such a comprehensive system before," Gochis said. "In some ways, the value of this is a blank page yet to be written."
———
©2016 The Houma Courier, La.
Visit The Houma Courier, La. at www.houmatoday.com
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
