Phil Klotzbach, a leading hurricane expert, made that prediction Monday, based partly on the fact that frigid waters flowing out of the North Atlantic Ocean may limit activity as warm seas that feed energy to storms cool.
"The far north Atlantic is one of the few really cold areas on the globe right now, and those cold anomalies are bleeding down toward the west coast of Africa," said Klotzbach, a researcher with Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science. "From there, they alter pressure patterns, winds and churn up the sea surface making the Atlantic not as conducive for a super active season."
Klotzbach, who made his prediction Monday at the week-long National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, won't deliver his official storm forecast until April.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is also weeks away from releasing its official 2016 hurricane forecast, but meteorologists have been buzzing about whether the end of El Nino will leave the U.S. more vulnerable to storms.
El Nino, a global weather phenomenon that begins with a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean, is characterized by strong westerly winds that cut down Atlantic storms.
The 2015-2016 El Nino, one of the strongest on record, is expected to weaken by summer.
But like a pendulum, the mighty trade winds that take a backseat during El Nino, can roar back, awakening La Nina – a more accommodating hurricane host.
The most recent forecast by the Climate Prediction Center says there is a 50 percent chance La Nina will arrive by September. Hurricane season runs June through November.
"The higher the chances of La Nina, the higher the chances for a bigger than usual hurricane season," said Bob Henson, a meteorologist and blogger for Weather Underground, in an interview earlier this month. "You have less wind shear and more favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms to develop into hurricanes."
But Klotzbach stressed Monday that the atmosphere doesn't always react immediately to change, meaning an El Nino hangover may linger to help thwart storms. Also, other factors, such as an area of low pressure he says has been a predominant factor over the East Coast have acted against storms. Low pressure turns in a counter-clockwise direction, pushing hurricanes away from the U.S. coast and to the north.
"I think the best example of this was 2010 when there were 12 hurricanes in the Atlantic and not one hit the U.S.," Klotzbach said. "We were extraordinarily lucky that year."
In fact, while Klotzbach looks at decades worth of data to see what patterns produce weak or active hurricane seasons, he said sometimes a hurricane miss is just providence.
The U.S. has not been hit by a major hurricane – Category 3 or higher – in 10 years. Florida's last hurricane was 2005's Wilma.
"There has been a significant luck component," he said. "There have been 27 major hurricanes in a row with none hitting the U.S. The odds of that are one in several thousand."
Klotzbach is lead author on the annual hurricane forecasts by Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. He took over the task in 2006 from noted hurricane researcher William Gray.
Last year, the duo's April hurricane forecast said there would be seven named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane. The season ended in November with 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
"2016 will be a good test since we won't have El Nino," said Klotzbach, who believes the Atlantic may have entered a climatic pattern of fewer hurricanes. "It would definitely increase confidence that we are moving out of an active time for storms."
Klotzbach is among dozens of weather and emergency management experts speaking at this year's National Hurricane Conference. About 1,500 people are registered for the week-long event.
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