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COVID-19 : How Many Deaths Can We Tolerate?

One per week was the answer back in the 1940s.

The debate that is ongoing now between scientists, public health officials and the Trump administration is how many deaths are acceptable? No one is thinking that zero deaths is a realistic number to expect from a virus that people do not have immunity from. So, how many people "are allowed to die" and we think that it is OK -- an acceptable number?

The one per week in the subtitle above came from a WWII vet who was my friend's father. He said at the camp where he was a training NCO, one death a week in training was considered acceptable. A casualty of war -- without being in combat. For instance, a Google search revealed there there were 800 non-hostile deaths in Iraq during the period of combat there. 

During my service years, there was no acceptable death rate in training -- ever! In 20 years I had one brand-new soldier assigned to our company stand in formation for inspection on a Friday morning and then he was dead that afternoon by drowning at Lake Belton, near Fort Hood. I can't remember his name, but the soldier who came to inform me as I was the Battalion Duty Officer that day was Ramero. You remember those things. 

We know that zero deaths is not reasonable. We also know the projection of 1 million to 2 million deaths without social distancing being implemented was too high. Now, we are participating in a grand experiment to see what the United States people will tolerate in deaths versus the economy. I can tell you that suppressing testimony from administration officials who are being called to testify to Congress is not the right answer. Good information is the key to good decision-making. 

To make "informed decisions" requires information, studies, projections and models that have to be constantly updated. One thing I can tell you at this point, the "studies" show that warmer temperatures and humidity will do nothing to dampen the transmission of the virus. So, cross that "hope" off your list of solutions for the summer. 

Eric Holdeman is a contributing writer for Emergency Management magazine and is the former director of the King County, Wash., Office of Emergency Management.