Jump ahead 40-45 years to 2030 and I see a new future coming that is linked to troubles that started years ago, but will manifest themselves in the coming years. It was about six years ago that I sat with others at an editorial roundtable where a diverse set of people were talking about their programs and what was going on about them. My topic of course was emergency management and probably the need for regional collaboration which was a strong focus of mine. At the end of the round robin discussion there was one final question. "What big issue do you see looming on the horizon for our nation?" While most took the topic back to their programmatic area of expertise, I said, "The increasing economic disparity between the 'haves and the have-nots' in our our society."
Nothing has changed my opinion since then. In fact there is more and more evidence of it in our nation with every passing day. This separation of people into economic classes has accelerated in recent years. We are becoming a nation that either shops at Nordstroms or Walmart. The future is not pretty.
The future I see is:
- The population of the United States will reach 400 million with mega cities and regions being where most people live.
- Our natural resources will continue to dwindle. Our physical and social infrastructure will crumble.
- Economic opportunity for those without an education will evaporate and along with it the American Dream of upward mobility.
- Our gun culture will thrive as people fear one another as individuals and classes of people.
- A college eduction being out of the reach of what we use to call "average Americans." Residential college education will be reserved for the rich. The rest will get online degrees, if they get any post high school education at all.
- The wealthy will seclude themselves in gated communities where they feel protected and safe. These will generally be "White Enclaves" where the minority of the population lives.
- The social safety network will continue to be taken apart as we refuse to share in our bounty with those less fortunate.
- The economic disadvantaged will feel hopeless and helpless. Lacking any opportunity they will "act out" on occasions to express their rage at their plight.
- Urban areas will be tinder boxes of unrest that will erupt when the opportunity presents itself.
- The disadvantaged will want to take revenge on those that "Have."
- Racial tensions between minorities will escalate as the above plays out and one party or the other feels a further sense of loss.
- The Mexican Drug War will move into the United States with full fledged gun battles between police and competing gangs.
- Governments will move to limit individual freedoms in order to "preserve public safety."
I remember the Detroit Riots and Michigan National Guard firing .50 Caliber machine guns at snipers firing on them in the urban area. Trust me--this is not normal! This is the scene well see again. Super armed gangs and individuals "taking on the establishment." We have had a glimpse of the future in Philadelphia in recent days as roving gangs of youth have beaten up on pedestrians and dragged people from cars.
Our role as emergency managers require us to see into the future and become prepared for the coming catastrophe. Climate change is one and the increasing risk of severe weather. Social unrest is the other hazard to become prepared for. As someone just Tweeted me about the 2030 date, "Do you really think it will take that long?" In actuality, depending on what happens in the next 2-4 years our plight could be accelerated.
We import many things from Europe. They in many respects lead the way in fashion and culture. If you want to see what women's shoes will look like two years from now, look at what they are wearing in Italy today (Hey, I sold women's shoes at Marshall Fields during my college years). Look the beginning impact of debt and drastic cuts to the social safety net in Europe and how people have reacted to those and you will see our uncertain future.
