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California Anticipates Almost No Water Deliveries to Cities

The reservoir water, sometimes piped hundreds of miles across the state, serves 29 water agencies that contract for supplies. In total, more than 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland get at least some of their water from the project.

drought-california
California's Folsom Lake is less than 20 percent full.
FlickrCC/sjrankin
(TNS) - California water officials acknowledged Wednesday that another painful year of drought is likely, and warned the many communities receiving water from the State Water Project that they may get no water at all next year, except in cases of emergency.

The record low 0% water allocation would leave parts of the state, including San Jose, much of the East Bay and Napa County, with significant dents in their water supplies. Local water agencies would have little choice but to seek out additional sources of water, which are certain to be sparse, as well as lean heavily on customers to make cuts — even more so than they're already doing.

"If it starts to look worse, we will have to call for more conservation," said Valerie Pryor, general manager of the Tri-Valley's Zone 7 Water Agency, which last summer mandated a 15% water reduction across its service area of Livermore, Pleasanton and Dublin. The agency usually gets more than two-thirds of its water from the state.

Wednesday's announcement is just the latest fallout of two critically dry years in California, which have been exacerbated by unprecedented heat. Across the state, communities are grappling with water shortages, farmers are churning out smaller harvests, grasslands and forests are losing vigor, and the threat of wildfire won't go away.

As for the State Water Project, its nearly three dozen lakes, reservoirs and storage facilities don't have enough supply to meet demand. Lake Oroville, the largest state-managed reservoir, has become one of the most potent symbols of the drought, rimmed with dusty banks and bathtub-like rings and standing at just 30% of its capacity, about 60% of where it typically stands this time of year.

"Here we are with pretty extreme conditions," said Karla Nemeth, director of the Department of Water Resources, which runs the State Water Project. "We need to prepare now for a dry winter and severe drought conditions to continue through 2022."

The forecasts for below-average precipitation for the coming months, and less runoff to fill the state's reservoirs, are fueled by a developing La Niña weather pattern. The bulk of the rain and snow that the project relies on comes between December and March.

The reservoir water, sometimes piped hundreds of miles across the state, serves 29 water agencies that contract for supplies. In total, more than 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland get at least some of their water from the project.

The 0% water allocation projected for next year follows this year's allocation of just 5% of what the water agencies requested. Consequently, many are already feeling a squeeze. The level of dependence on the state varies between agencies, with some having lots of alternative supplies and some having little else to fall back on.

State water officials said Wednesday that they will provide at least some water to agencies that don't have enough to meet "critical health and safety" needs. So far, seven of the project contractors have said they will need the emergency supply.

In the Bay Area, the Santa Clara Valley Water District, Alameda County Water District, Napa County Flood Control and Water Conservation District and Solano County Water Agency, in addition to the Tri-Valley's Zone 7, get some portion of water from the state project. So does Southern California's Metropolitan Water District, the biggest state contractor, supplying water to 19 million people.

Pryor, at the Zone 7 Water Agency, said she's been planning for little water from the state and is hoping that conservation measures, on top of supplies from nearby Lake Del Valle and storage, will help the agency weather another dry year. She's also hoping to buy water from another agency, should it become available.

The Alameda County Water District, which serves Fremont, Newark and Union City, has not had to enact mandatory water restrictions but likely will with no new state water deliveries. The agency typically gets 40% of its water from the State Water Project.

"To be very clear, this is extraordinary," said district General Manager Ed Stevenson. "Our customers are going to need to conserve more. ... As long as we do get conservation from our customers, we'll be OK, for now."

The water allocation announced Wednesday is subject to change as the winter progresses. The initial projection is meant to give water agencies time to plan ahead. The 0% allocation is the lowest ever made at this point in the year.

The State Water Project is the sibling of the federally run Central Valley Project, which similarly funnels runoff from the mountains to California cities and farms. The federal project has not announced an estimated allocation for next year.

Kurtis Alexander is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kalexander@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @kurtisalexander

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