Colorado State University researchers are predicting a below average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, with seven named storms, leaving Henri, the possible eighth named storm, out of the alphabetical running.
Of the seven storms, three are expected to become hurricanes and one is forecast to reach major hurricane strength with winds of 111 mph or more, researchers reported in their annual forecast released Thursday.
The report comes with a caution: "It just takes that one storm to make it an active season," said Phil Klotzbach, the lead author of the report put out by CSU's Tropical Meteorology Project since 1984.
Take 1992, which also was supposed to be a quiet year for hurricanes. That held true until Aug. 24, when Hurricane Andrew slammed into South Florida with 175 mph winds. The storm killed 23 people in the U.S. and caused $26 billion in damage.
Playing the averages, though, 2015 is shaping up to be about 45 percent of a typical year. By comparison, 2014 was about 75 percent of average, researchers said Thursday.
The report also puts the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall on the Florida peninsula at 15 percent, well below the 31 percent average during the past century.
Klotzbach, the author, said the April version of the Colorado State forecast has a margin of error of plus-or-minus three storms. Updates are planned for June 1, July 1 and Aug. 3.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration plans to release its hurricane season predictions May 27. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov, 30.
The Colorado State forecasts are based on 60 years of data — sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, wind shear levels. So far, the season looks a lot like other years that produced fewer storms.
Two keys this year are El Nino, a warming of the Pacific that creates atmospheric conditions that put a damper on hurricane development, and an unusual cooling of the Atlantic thanks to winter storm patterns.
Predictions aside, Collier County Emergency Management Coordinator Dan Summers said he won't breathe a sigh of relief until the 2015 hurricane season is in the books.
"It doesn't change in any way how we gear up for the season," Summers said.
©2015 the Naples Daily News (Naples, Fla.). Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
