Forecasters see a potentially record-setting El Niño on the horizon, and the impact could be disastrous.
Remember Macon's colossal 16.5 inches of snow in February 1973 and the blizzard of March 1993?
A similar El Niño pattern was in play those years and in 1998 when Georgia saw significant flooding in March.
"The El Niño is an extremely strong one, and the equatorial Pacific water is really warm," said Bill Murphey, Georgia's climatologist who studies weather patterns through the years.
Although astronomical winter does not begin until Dec. 21, meteorologists consider the season to be the full months of December, January and February.
"Not every El Niño is going to be the same, especially toward snow. You've got to have everything in place at the same time," Murphey said.
But don't lose sight of the fact that Macon's most memorable snowfalls happened during similar conditions.
El Niño happens when warmer than normal Pacific waters affect the subtropical jet stream, traditionally bringing wetter and slightly cooler weather to the Southeast.
The ocean water needs to be at least 0.5 degrees warmer than normal to classify as an El Niño year, and this year the water is already five times warmer than that minimum threshold, with average temperatures 2.5 degrees above normal.
The instability created by the active jet stream also can trigger tornadoes.
"You've got to watch for severe weather this time of year, especially in central and south Georgia," Murphey said.
In a National Weather Service briefing on this year's El Niño, senior meteorologist Dan Darbe said serious winter tornado outbreaks can happen.
"For example, on Dec. 2, 2009, during a moderately strong El Niño winter, a storm system produced seven tornadoes in Georgia. The strongest of which was an EF2 that injured two people and destroyed several homes in Appling County," Darbe said.
Macon is already seeing wetter than normal conditions, with the seventh wettest November on record with 6.89 inches of rain, which is 3.57 inches above normal.
Additional clouds acting as a blanket overnight also kept lows warmer than normal in the midstate, with low temperatures running 5.4 degrees above average, which ranked November as the sixth warmest mean minimum for the month.
"Cloudiness at night killed radiational cooling," Murphey said.
When skies are clear at night, the warmth of the day escapes into the atmosphere instead of being trapped by clouds.
Although parts of Georgia had entered into drought conditions in the second half of summer, only extreme southern pockets of the state remain abnormally dry.
In the coming weeks, north Georgia will see the bulk of rain streaming into the Southeast.
As for the potential for a white Christmas, Murphey said: "I'll look for it, but I'm not going to look around here."
History shows strong El Niño patterns bring wetter winters, but the possibility of snow is a little sketchier.
National Weather Service meteorologist Adam Baker said El Niño isn't the only factor.
"A single event cannot be directly attributed to a larger scale climate cycle like El Niño, though such a pronounced feature can very well increase the likelihood of having one impact the area," Baker said.
Pressure systems in the North Atlantic and Arctic control the flow of freezing temperatures plunging into the deep South, but they cannot be projected beyond a couple of weeks, which prevents long-range forecasting for snow and blizzards.
Because the potential exists, Georgia emergency managers encourage everyone to prepare and have supplies on hand to weather a winter storm.
Gov. Nathan Deal took heat for not being prepared for the winter storm that paralyzed Atlanta a couple of years ago, but is now urging everyone to stock up on supplies.
Deal declared Nov. 30 to Dec. 4 as Winter Weather Preparedness Week.
"All Georgians are encouraged to prepare and plan for dangerous weather conditions by winterizing their homes, making a family communications plan and preparing an emergency kit for their homes and cars," Deal stated in a release.
Tips for winterizing your home, compiling supplies and developing family communication plans are available through the Ready Georgia campaign.
Macon-Bibb County's acting director of the Emergency Management Agency, Spencer Hawkins, also encourages everyone to be prepared and has compiled tips on the agency's website.
He offered this advice in a county news release: "Since winter weather in Middle Georgia can be unpredictable, our residents need to understand the hazards we face and how to protect themselves, their family, and friends."
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