The new "threats and impacts graphic" is a collaborative effort between the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center. Expected to roll out in the upcoming hurricane season which begins June 1, the tool will allow people to determine with the stroke of a key if their area is in danger of hurricane-force winds, flooding rains, storm surge or tornadoes.
"The idea is somebody can go to their local area, click and it not only shows the threat they face but the potential impacts," said Pablo Santos, meteorologist in charge at the NWS Miami office who was in Orlando for the Governor's Hurricane Conference this week.
As soon as watches or warnings are issued and hurricane impacts are 36 to 48 hours away, the map will go live and people will be able to see the chance of winds, rain and tornadoes as well as the potential height of flooding from storm surge.
The site will also have an easy-to-read, color-coded map to reveal potential impacts across the region.
The graphic will be based on National Hurricane Center forecasts, but it won't rely solely on the projected storm track, Santos said. While the page will represent things visually, readers also will see written summaries describing the watches and warnings in more detail.
"It's just meant to communicate: 'What should you be preparing for?'" Santos said.
Meteorologists have made great strides in forecasting hurricanes, but they're not all the way there yet, said Dan Brown, NHC warning coordination meteorologist.
Since 1990, the margin of error in a forecast track has shrunk considerably, but the bright red line or even the wider "cone of uncertainty" in those projections aren't exact.
Too many unwisely breathe a sigh of relief, thinking they're safe if their home is outside the cone.
That's not the case.
Brown stressed that the sting of a storm reaches beyond the cone, delivering serious storm surge, rain, wind and tornadoes for miles beyond.
That is the appeal of the new graphic, Brown said. It will show potential impacts and percentage chances of the hazards.
While it's tempting to shrug off 30 percent rain chances, Brown warned that residents should pay heed to these forecasts — even when chances drop low. He compared it to considering a 30 percent chance of getting hit by a bus when crossing the street — it's not a possibility easily dismissed.
NHC has other projects in the pipeline extending the 5-day-forecast track to cover seven days, Brown said. Early results are good but it could be a year or two before they're ready to roll it out.
"Over the past few decades, hurricane center forecasts are getting better and better. They're still not perfect," Brown said.
At the conference, much of the chatter revolved around the role of social media from Twitter to Instagram. The agencies are increasingly turning to these outlets to both to confirm weather events or gather photos from the field and to get the word out about impending danger.
In that pursuit, culling social media for data during a storm has become a full-time job for some employees, said Dan Noah, warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS Tampa Bay office.
During bigger events, they might tap offices in different states to go through all the data to see what is usable in forecasting.
When posting to Facebook and beyond, forecasters try to strike a more conversational tone skipping weather jargon that the general public might not understand. The goal: reach a wider audience when the message is urgent.
The blessing of social media — its speed — can also be a danger when it's false or questionable information making the rounds and causing confusion, said Scott Spratt, warning coordination meteorologist for the NWS Melbourne office.
The offices have to coordinate with emergency management offices and with the media to make sure that the message is accurate and unified.
"We need consistency in our office and we need to keep that consistency with neighboring offices," Spratt said.
©2015 The Palm Beach Post (West Palm Beach, Fla.). Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
