And, because it is 2020, that’s not the end of the bad news. With Tuesday’s Tropical Storm Isaias barely gone from the radar, experts at Colorado State University released a forecast predicting the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be the second busiest on record, with 24 named storms and 12 hurricanes, including five major hurricanes.
If the prediction bears out, the season, which goes through November, would be second only to 2005. That year saw 28 storms, including the devastating Hurricane Katrina.
The World Meteorological Association doesn’t use the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z to name tropical storms in the Atlantic. So if the Colorado State prediction holds, names will eventually be pulled from the Greek alphabet and would get us to Tropical Storm Gamma, represented by the Greek letter \u2308.
The outlook’s authors point to exceedingly warm temperatures across the tropical Atlantic, and vertical wind shear well below average this year. Shear disrupts the flow of heat and moisture in tropical systems, making them less likely to develop and strengthen. Without it, the Atlantic can begin to resemble a storm conveyor belt.
Isaias came less than a month after the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay soaked the region with nearly 2 inches of rain. It dropped about 5 inches of rain or more across the Lehigh Valley, inundating the area with floods that stranded drivers, filled basements and forced the evacuations of homes and apartments.
The idea that it might have been a taste of storms to come is worrisome to flood-weary residents like Marc and Angela Rosenberg of Upper Saucon Township. On Tuesday, the couple watched water runoff from Route 309 surround their Center Valley home for the third time in seven years.
“In the bad storms, water comes down about a quarter-mile and goes into a rock swale,” Marc Rosenberg said, referring to a spot on his property meant to contain the flow of rainwater. “Water got so high Tuesday it went halfway up our basement windows and started coming in through cracks. If it hadn’t stopped, it would have approached the front door.”
For the first 10 years the Rosenbergs lived in the area, their property on East Valley Road appeared safe from flooding. Things changed after the remnants of Tropical Storm Andrea moved through in 2013. While their home hasn’t been severely damaged, they’re wondering what happens next?
The story is the same for residents just outside the perimeter of historically flood-prone areas of Hellertown. They’re wondering if the steering currents of tropical cyclones will keep sending them this way, and what happens if they do.
Anything seems possible in a year when the region has been under the same number of tropical storm watches and warnings as Miami, New Orleans and Houston.
Susan Yale, a resident of West Saucon Street, has lived in Hellertown for 15 years and can’t recall flash flooding like Tuesday’s, which turned both Main and Front streets into a rushing river.
“You could see the water lines because there’s mud everywhere,” Yale said. “It was never backed up to Main Street like that.”
The grim predictions for hurricane season — which also include a revised National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast for up to 25 storms — don’t necessarily mean another tropical cyclone is heading this way. But it’s alarming when the Lehigh Valley has seemingly exceeded its threshold for an active hurricane season.
“Pennsylvanians deal with the threat of flooding every year, and those threats are only becoming more extreme and difficult to predict,” read a statement from the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency in response to the updated outlooks.
PEMA called flood insurance “an important financial lifeline” for homeowners. The statement noted private flood insurance is available, and in most cases is very affordable, particularly for those who do not live in a federally designated flood plain.
Pennsylvanians should also prepare emergency plans and kits that can be used in any type of emergency.
“I think the seasonal outlook is a good reminder to review existing preparedness plans or put together one if you don’t have it,” said Gary Szatkowski, former chief meteorologist in the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly office in New Jersey.
As the cleanup from Isaias continues, it will serve as a reminder that hurricanes don’t have to be “major” to be dangerous.
“If a storm is a once-in-250-year or 500-year rainfall event, it will always flood areas that people do not recall having been flooded before,” Szatkowski said. “It is important to remember that Mother Nature always plays the long game.”
In this case, the long game extends at least until Nov. 30. That’s the last day of hurricane season, though storms can develop beyond it. The last tropical system to form in 2005 didn’t dissipate until six days into 2006.
Be prepared
To be ready for severe weather, Pennsylvanians should have:
An emergency plan that includes how family members would get in touch with each other if an emergency happens; where they would meet if they are unable to return safely to their home; what routes would be used to get to those locations.
An emergency kit of food, water, basic medical supplies, specialized items like baby or pet supplies, and copies of important documents. The kit should be stored in a spot that’s easy to get to.
A drill that families practice by grabbing their kits and heading to their designated meeting spots, which may require driving along planned routes.
Morning Call reporter Stephanie Sigafoos can be reached at 610-820-6612 or ssigafoos@mcall.com.
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