But there were some ominous incidents or developments that were either devastating in and of themselves or portend potential devastation in the future. These are the stories I’ve picked for my list of top stories for the year. An example of the former is the Washington state mudslide, which in its devastation was ominous enough. But by calling it the “new normal,” Snohomish County Emergency Management Director John Pennington is acknowledging that being caught off guard by more and bigger disaster scenarios is in our future.
For the most part, these stories won’t end on New Year’s Day because there is an underlying current of conditions that will swell to bring similar conditions to the fore in coming years. Let’s take a look at what I mean.
Washington Mudslide: The slide hit with no warning and wiped out a swath of Snohomish County, killing 43 people in March. The slide covered an area of about a square mile, burying debris and bodies as much as 75 feet deep. After the fact, Pennington said despite all the planning and preparation for worst-case scenarios, he was caught off guard. And he said, “Welcome to the new normal.”
It may not be new to be caught off guard but that kind of disaster, one perhaps more devastating and difficult than previously experienced, represents what he means by the new normal. Be ready for the unexpected. Pennington called this disaster a crystal ball into the future. Whether the slide was indirectly related to a warmer climate or not, Pennington also warned that climate change is real and it’s here.
What officials had to manage that day and in the aftermath of the slide was horrendous. But there was a system in place and leadership that took over. There were volunteers who showed up ready and willing to help and first responders from outside the area. Strangers — more than 1,500 of them — were on hand to help.
The response and recovery efforts offered a window into ways to handle volunteers in the future as well. Hundreds of people showed up, some with some CERT training and some without. Part of the success of the operation was how those volunteers were incorporated into the recovery efforts.
People brought dump trucks and other equipment, which was needed. They were ready to go at a moment’s notice. That was critical, according to Thomas Richardson, battalion chief for the Seattle Fire Department and Washington Task Force 1 Urban Search and Rescue leader.
He said a key lesson to come from this event was that more training that includes potential volunteers should be done. “There are independent activities going on where firefighters prepare for disasters and civilians prepare for disasters but rarely do we actually tie the civilians in with the training of the firefighters.”
Richardson added that civilian volunteers are people who happen to have a job other than one in emergency management but are not any less capable of helping during a disaster.
Sea Level Rise: Addressing the issue of sea level rise is more than just talk, it’s become a reality. Recent hurricanes have demonstrated how destructive water surges can be and studies point to more such incidents in the future. The Niels Bohr Institute predicted that the frequency of hurricanes will increase by 10 if the climate becomes just two degrees warmer. Other scientists predict a sea level rise of 11 to 24 inches in New York by 2050.
Those predictions and the experiences of recent hurricanes prompted New York City and New Orleans to take action. They announced new plans that don’t just push the water away but envelope it. They are spending billions of dollars to develop a resilience to what is considered an increasing threat, and instead of building dams and walls, the solutions will be about developing a whole new system for living with increased amounts of water. That’s forward thinking and it’s critical because we know the trend isn’t going to reverse itself anytime soon.
New York’s plan recognizes the vulnerabilities so painfully affirmed by Hurricane Sandy. It addresses not only what hurricanes and coastal storms will bring but also more comprehensively looks at what changes in the climate might unveil. It strengthens the coastlines, upgrades buildings and makes people safer.
The effort in New Orleans offers a 50-year coastal master plan that deals with the predicted vulnerability in sea level rise. Both of these plans have roots in what the Dutch have done over hundreds of years to reduce vulnerability to sea level rise.
Cyber and the Grid: As the FBI put it recently, there is a “tremendous amount of cyberespionage going on.” Although it wasn’t speaking specifically of a threat to the power grid, that remains a viable scenario. The U.S. power grid, as it has gotten “smarter,” has also become more vulnerable to a cyberattack.
Hackers calling themselves Guardians for Peace, who hacked into Sony and threatened physical damage in the U.S., demonstrated what can be done. And the attackers vowed that the “world would be full of fear.”
An attack on the power grid wouldn’t be hard to carry out as we’ve learned, and the attackers wouldn’t be very noticeable. The grid was made for physical reliability and resistance to storms and not for resistance to a cyberattack. Making the grid safe against cyberattacks is possible but not easy. There are standards for safeguarding the software that controls the grid but implementing those isn’t easy. Other measures can be costly.
A big concern is a motivated individual with the wherewithal to invade the grid and create serious damage and loss of life. DarkSeoul is a hacking organization that was successful in attacking Korean banks, financial companies and government websites. It’s feared that someone could use a piece of malware, target critical infrastructure in the U.S. and do major damage or simply turn off the lights.
That’s where emergency managers come into play, and experts on this topic say it’s a matter of time before something along these lines takes place.
Ebola: It’s not necessarily the Ebola virus that carried this story but the way risk communication was handled and the preparedness levels, or lack thereof, among U.S. hospitals for such an occurrence. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Tom Frieden confidently announced that all hospitals in the U.S. were ready to handle an Ebola outbreak. As it turned out, those working in the hospitals were less confident and there were some discrepancies between what the CDC thought was adequate protection among first receivers (such as nurses) and what hospital personnel and others thought.
And there was a lack of confidence among the public about what some health officials were saying about the likelihood of spreading Ebola through normal contact. The CDC had guidelines posted on its website but could have reached out publicly through other means like video and social media.
The question is, when another outbreak occurs — perhaps for a different infection such as a serious flu epidemic — will the public health community have the bandwidth to handle it? There are many lessons, some not yet learned, about the Ebola outbreak that could serve us well next time. Will there be a national communication plan for the next public health hazard? There wasn’t one for Ebola. Will hospitals be equipped to handle a surge of patients that could potentially overwhelm staff? Will the lessons from the Ebola scare be truly learned or just observed and forgotten?
