NOAA predicts 6-11 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3-6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher) for the 2015 hurricane season. They also project a 70 percent likelihood that it will be below average.
In a similar report released last month, Colorado State forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach also projected a season that won't make the average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Still, anyone in areas that could be affected by hurricanes should make their plans before a storm is bearing down, said Joseph Nimmich, FEMA deputy administrator. Families should assemble kits that include three days’ worth of food and water, secure their homes and make evacuation plans before the June 1 start to hurricane season.
"You need to think about that now," he said. "You need to think about it for yourselves and you need to think about it for your neighbors."
NOAA's forecasters attributed the prediction to the formation of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and about average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. El Niño is a phenomenon of warmer water in the Pacific Ocean that creates more wind-shear in the atmosphere, causing a suppressing effect for hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Though El Niño and the below-normal outlook are good signs, it only takes one storm to cause catastrophic damage to an area, said Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA administrator.
The 1992 season produced only seven named storms, but the first was Andrew — a devastating Category 5 hurricane that leveled Homestead. It also occurred during an El Niño year.
"It doesn't matter how many pitches we face, just how many hit the strike zone," she said.
Sullivan also praised new technology that will help NOAA and the National Hurricane Center in its forecasting, enabling local emergency management teams to make more informed decisions.
Using 2014 Hurricane Arthur as an example, Sullivan said only a portion of the Outer Banks was evacuated when 10 to 20 years ago it would have been all of the North Carolina coast.
Last May, NOAA predicted 8-13 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes and 1-2 major hurricanes. The final totals were eight named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
No major hurricanes have made landfall in the country in nine years, which causes some concern that people might not take the season seriously or remember proper procedures. White House press secretary Josh Earnest emphasized that in a conference call ahead of President Barack Obama's visit to Miami's National Hurricane Center.
Since Wilma in 2005, no storm of at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale has struck the U.S. mainland and no hurricane of any kind has struck Florida; in that time, Florida's population has increased by some 3 million.
Earnest stressed that state and local leaders have the responsibility to lead response to hurricanes. And he said that, while this White House hasn't itself steered management of a major hurricane, it has an ace in the bullpen: Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Craig Fugate, who as Florida's emergency manager, handled the manic 2004 and 2005 seasons.
And he said that, as head of FEMA under Obama, Fugate also has "a lot of experience in dealing with natural disasters that have put a lot of Americans in harm's way."
Anyone with questions on hurricane preparedness and what they should be doing can visit ready.gov.
©2015 The Palm Beach Post (West Palm Beach, Fla.). Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
