That’s a really optimistic hope, experts say. It depends on how many people get vaccinated, how quickly and how COVID-19 mutates.
The vaccine roll-out has so far been slower than expected, and some people are opting not to take the protective shot. Cases are climbing in much of the United States. And while experts predict the outlook will be much better by summer — especially because the virus spreads less easily when we’re outside in warm weather — plenty of restrictions will likely still be in place.
“Still, July 4th won’t be a celebration of COVID’s defeat; if we’re fortunate, it will be a small reprieve in the ongoing struggle to bring this pandemic to an end,” said Stephen Kissler, a postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said in a Harvard seminar last month that if 75-80% of Americans choose to get vaccinated, the country could approach herd immunity by the end of summer and normality by the end of 2021.
Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told the Atlantic that by July 4, the virus will likely still be spreading, but vaccines will be widely available. He wants to host a backyard barbecue — with masks if guests go inside.
“It won’t be normal, but it won’t be like Fourth of July 2020,” Jha said. “I think that’s when it’ll start to feel like we’re no longer in a pandemic.”
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecast model runs through April, when it still predicts thousands of new Ohio cases a day.
Cleveland officials, who are now vaccinating first responders and congregate-care residents through its health department, say it’s hard to predict what circumstances will look like by July. The Mayor’s Proclamation of Civil Emergency is still in place and has been renewed monthly.
“We are not sure where we will be regarding the pandemic. We will continue to advise the public, accordingly,” Mayor Frank Jackson’s office said.
Dan Tierney, spokesman for Gov. Mike DeWine says it’s too soon to speculate, and that getting people vaccinated is the main focus right now.
Three experts weigh in on whether the pandemic will be over by the summer.
Daniel Nichols, virologist and assistant professor at Seton Hall University
“It’s difficult to predict,” says Nichols.“There are new variants of the virus that could complicate vaccine efforts so I would be hesitant to put a definitive end date on it.”
Nichols said it’s too early to say what effects or complications these new variants would have with current vaccine efforts, but they are out in circulation.
“I think it’s a possibility, albeit an optimistic one, that by summer we could get back to normalcy, but we need more people vaccinated with both doses before that can happen,” Nichols said.
Dr. Amy Edwards, associate medical director of Women’s and Children’s Infection Control at UH Rainbow Babies & Children’s Hospital
“A lot more vaccines need to be approved between now and July before when can possibly begin to gather safely,” says Edwards.
Edwards says if numbers in the area are low and everyone is vaccinated then outdoor gatherings should be mostly safe. She says the summer should lead to a natural slowing of the virus spread anyway.
“If we do get more vaccines (and more importantly if we can convince people to GET the vaccine) then yes, by July we should really have this under control, maybe not fully eradicated, but at least at a manageable place,” Edwards said.
Stephen Kissler, postdoctoral fellow, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Dept. of Immunology and Infectious Diseases
“I believe that things could be safe for gatherings by this July – but it depends very much on how we act in the meantime,” says Kissler.
Kissler says getting people vaccinated is the clear priority right now.
“With the emergence of the novel variant, this has become even more urgent. Prior to detecting the new variant, our best estimates were that around 70% of people would need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity,” says Kissler.
Kissler says no one knows exactly how much more transmissible the new variant is, but no matter what, it will increase that percentage needed for “herd immunity.”
“So far, we’ve only vaccinated about 4.5 million Americans, and we’ve had the vaccines for almost a month. At that rate, we’d only get to about 10% coverage by July. I’m confident vaccination rates will increase, but they need to increase a lot!” Kissler said.
Kissler also noted the sizable fraction of Americans that have said that they won’t receive the vaccine under any circumstances. He says it may be possibly enough people that we won’t ever reach herd immunity through vaccination.
“This means that we’ll probably need other precautions to help us through,” says Kissler. “On the plus side, it does seem like SARS-CoV-2 is less transmissible in the summer (even though it can still spread), so we might be able to bring cases down to a low level by July with the help of vaccines and continued mask-wearing and physical distancing.”
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