In the quarter ended June 30, worldwide PC shipments were 31.1 million, down 0.5 percent from the year-ago period, according to the technology research firm International Data Corp.
Preliminary data from Gartner Dataquest showed nearly the same results.
Both firms had predicted slight growth for the quarter and did not expect such a lingering slump in demand. The cautious spending by consumers and corporations also has affected many high-tech companies, which recently have reported disappointing earnings.
Still, IDC analysts say they have "muted optimism" for a PC market recovery in the second half of the year, helped by back-to-school and holiday sales and by corporations long overdue for technology upgrades.
"Shipments are not going down anymore, but it's not a robust recovery," said IDC analyst Roger Kay. "We expect weak but positive growth in 2002, and that sets it up for a more robust recovery in 2003."
IDC predicts 4.7 percent worldwide growth for 2002, and 11 percent in 2003.
But if third-quarter sales remain depressed, or if the economy fails to pick up as IDC expects, the outlook may change, Kay said.
"A fragile economy and uncertain political outlook remain wild cards," he said.
With the economic uncertainty and second-quarter setback in sales, analyst Charles Smulders said Gartner's 2002 forecast of 5 percent growth may be pared to 2 percent to 4 percent.
According to IDC's quarterly report, Hewlett-Packard Co., now merged with Compaq Computer Corp., moved up to the No. 1 spot for worldwide shipments, garnering 15.1 percent of the market.
But Dell Computer Corp., which stole the top spot from Compaq last year, held onto 14.8 percent of the worldwide market. Dell, which has been stealing market share from other computer makers and is the No. 1 vendor in the United States, was the only top-five worldwide vendor to see its shipments grow.
Dell shipped 4.6 million units, up 15.5 percent from the year-ago period, while the others -- HP, IBM, Fujitsu Siemens and NEC -- all shipped fewer units, with declines ranging from NEC's 4.5 percent to HP's 16.2 percent
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