However, a new study by ABI Research indicates that cellular technologies used in isolation might not be the best route for maximizing margins. Instead, WiMAX or Metropolitan Wi-Fi could offer a way out of the dilemma.
Principal analyst Stuart Carlaw explains: "As soon as data consumption reaches between two and three times today's levels, a tipping point is reached, at which cell shrinkage and capacity degradation for WCDMA and CDMA2000 networks mean that carriers will need to install extra network elements that support the subscriber base, at considerable expense." He adds that "More importantly, the power consumption required to support these upgrades will destroy any potential benefit carriers see from data revenues."
The study found that from a conceptual perspective -- such mixed networks are still in their infancy -- the best way to support mobile broadband will be to integrate current cellular offerings with targeted WiMAX and Metro Wi-Fi deployments in dense high traffic areas.
Such mixed networks could deliver significant savings. ABI Research forecasts that in terms of power consumption OPEX, by 2011 the cost of delivering wireless services to WCDMA customers will be near $14 per annum, while Metro Wi-Fi will be as low as just over $1.
Some wireless operators are already laying the groundwork for these developments. Sprint has nominated WiMAX as its 4G technology of choice, while T-Mobile is moving toward integration of its Wi-Fi hotspot and cellular networks. Others, such as Vodafone, with businesses based solely on cellular, may find themselves at a real disadvantage unless they act fast to consider other technologies.
The new ABI Research study, Energy Efficiency Analysis for Mobile Broadband Networks, provides a theoretical and real-world analysis of the relative costs of deploying WCDMA, HSDPA, CDMA2000 1XRTT, EVDO, WiMAX and Municipal Wi-Fi.
