NSR predicts a slow but steadily growing market for WiMAX in China. From a relatively low revenue base of $130.0 million in 2007, the market is forecasted to grow more robustly in the latter years of the forecast, exceeding $7 billion by end-2012. The overall market translates to a growing subscriber base as well as a developing ecosystem where government support, form factor development and market receptiveness for new technologies favor the adoption of WiMAX.
"But in order for WiMAX to succeed, many issues are now critical that will determine the shape of the demand curve over the next several years. The attitude of the Chinese Government towards WiMAX, which spectrum will be adopted, how Chinese telecom carriers view it, and the relation between WiMAX and 3G will all determine the development of WiMAX in China," states Christopher Baugh, president of NSR.
The future of WiMAX relative to 3G is determined by the choice and balance of the Chinese Government and telecom carriers, who generally see WiMAX and 3G as complementary today. Their attitudes have (and will) affect the development of WiMAX, but policy related to competition or complementary positioning will not be felt until both mobile WiMAX (802.16e) and 3G are launched.
"China's highly dynamic economy and growing wealth can only be sustained with continued modernization efforts that favor free market principles and the adoption of advanced technologies. The government will have to open the market to established incumbents that are well entrenched, as well as level the playing field to enable bold start-ups to gain a foothold in the provision of wireless access services," according to Baugh.
However, given the potential for a highly politicized policy process, the report concluded that China's WiMAX market for service and revenues is expected to exhibit slow growth from 2007 to 2009 before growing more robustly beginning in 2010. This is largely due to ecosystem development that is restrained by the lack of spectrum allocations by the government. The spectrum issue is expected to be resolved by the end of 2007; however, actual allocations and peripheral issues are likely to delay the full and quick penetration of WiMAX services and equipment over the next three years.
NSR is an international market research and consulting firm specializing in satellite and wireless technology and applications. NSR primary areas of expertise include emerging technology, IP applications, and broadcast services.
Photo by Saad Akhtar. Creative Commons Attribution 2.0
