Growing Constituencies Missing from Landline Telephone Polls

A substantial and rapidly growing percentage of the population is missing from telephone surveys consisting of random-digit dialing (RDD) samples restricted to landline numbers. Recent media attention to this issue points out ramifications to both political polling and public policy. The National Health Interview Survey estimates cord-cutters (cell-only) are now 13 percent of the population, and will exceed 25 percent next year. Certain populations, such as 18-34 year-old adults, have all but disappeared in landline surveys.Macro International has taken the lead in developing research methodologies that keep pace with the changing telephone landscape, researching cell phone interviewing over the past four years and conducting the first-ever cell phone omnibus survey in October. Earlier, Macro confirmed some of the characteristics of cell versus landline telephone research in a pilot cell phone data collection project: a health survey that included more than 1,900 interviews in six states.

"Overall, cell phone samples are young and male, landline samples tend to be older and female. Put them together and you get the whole picture." said James Dayton, a Macro senior vice president. "Missing respondents mean missing information. For example, Macro's research suggests the cell-only population is more likely to be uninsured, even after adjusting for age and other demographics.

"Our research demonstrates that the results of political polls can also be strongly influenced by cord cutters," Dayton continued. MacroPoll Wireless revealed that nearly 52 percent of cell-only adults consider themselves Democrats or lean Democratic, while 26 percent consider themselves Republican or are Republican-leaning. While the Democratic percentage for cell-only users is similar to traditional telephone polls, the Republican percentage is much lower. While only 26 percent of cell-only users consider themselves Republican, 38 percent of landline users (in a recent CNN/Opinion Research poll, Nov 2-4, 2007) consider themselves Republican.

Macro's research supports the National Health Interview Survey estimates on the growth of cord cutting. According to MacroPoll Wireless, 85 percent of cell users who still maintain a landline reported that they were not planning to give up their landline in the future, while seven percent said yes, and eight percent were unsure.

Cell phone interviewing works best when used in conjunction with traditional landline samples, but cell phone surveys also offer unique advantages for longitudinal analysis. For example, text messages and other communications can reduce study attrition. And, although subjects move around, cell phone numbers often remain the same.

MacroPoll Wireless, an omnibus survey conducted by Macro, contacts 250 respondents via telephone. Of the 250 respondents, 103 of them are self-reported cell phone-only users (in other words, they have discontinued landline service). Macro is accepting questions for the second round of MacroPoll Wireless, which will run January 23rd-29th.

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