In his keynote, Nov. 16 at the Paris Hotel in Las Vegas, Knabb relayed a story of trying to find out the sex of his unborn child. Knabb and his wife had visited a technician who went through all the necessary steps and announced that the couple was going to have a girl. Three months later and very close to the end of the pregnancy, the same technician said, “Congratulations on your baby boy.”
Knabb compared that kind of medical science with hurricane prediction, even as the hurricane is upon us.
"There are a lot of limitations to atmospheric science just as there are with medical science," he said. And even with new tools and a graphic that he is particularly excited about, constant communication with emergency managers throughout an event is critical.
Doctors' prognoses are often uncertain and contain a variety of scenarios. The same can be said for atmospheric science where even with tools that probe a storm, the details can change or can be difficult to pin down.
"As with a medical diagnosis, there are a range of possibilities with a hurricane, even at hour zero, and that makes the need to communicate throughout the event critical," Knabb said. "I'm not sure if the science or the communication is more important."
He said consistency of message is important as is knowing and conveying the big picture as well as what's happening on the local scene, and this can and should be put in place for any disaster. "It's a high priority for us not just to issue a forecast but to put the public in a position to be resilient," he said. And that is a difficult challenge because the public tends to think it won't happen to them.
"It's a challenge getting the public to listen and people often misinterpret seasonal forecasts," said Knabb. "We have to remind people that like Sandy, it doesn't have to be a major hurricane to do major damage."
Knabb said the center is as busy during the offseason as it is during hurricane season taking tours and trying to educate the public. He urges the public to find an evacuation zone; have an evacuation plan; buy supplies; visit your insurance agent; strengthen homes and do it before the hurricane season starts.
