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The Future Isn't What It Used to Be

Don't worry about the future; plan for it.

It is very hard to predict the future. When will the next recession happen? Who will win the presidential election six months from now? Which alert and warning system will give me the longest life cycle? Which digital technology should I invest in today to prepare me for tomorrow's innovations?

The above topic is explored a bit in Confronting Yesterday's Future, which is a column by Paul Taylor in Government Technology magazine. He notes that "it is hard to look forward in the rear view mirror." Our experiences shape us and our thinking, but that is all in our past. Might those experiences be sending us the wrong signals about what to expect tomorrow, next month or next year? Certainly what worked in the past is likely not to work in the near future. The "tried and true" systems we use might be the "tried and old" in the not-too-distant future.

Getting out of the box our experiences have put us in and envisioning what might be possible is everyone's responsibility. If you had stuck with the IBM Selectric typewriter of the 1970s, where would you be today? Behind the times!

Paul highlights the issue of being enamored by what is "familiar" and fearing the risk of embracing something new. It is those organizations that can break out of previous molds to see new paths that will dominate the innovation culture that is a prime function of having a progressive program in this new century. 

Remember, it was only about 100 years ago when there were those who thought the horse was still good enough for them! The horse population in the United States peaked in 1915. Now it is the Kentucky Derby and other races that draw the most attention to horses, but that is about it. The language may linger a bit longer. When growing up in the 1950s, we still described two-car garages as having two stalls. Even that has now passed away.

Eric Holdeman is a contributing writer for Emergency Management magazine and is the former director of the King County, Wash., Office of Emergency Management.
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