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COVID-19: The Next Surge in Cases and Deaths Is Coming

It is predictable!

by Eric Holdeman / August 25, 2020

My COVID-19 crystal ball says that come the end of September, we will have a surge of coronavirus cases nationwide. Why?

This is the easy part. After every major holiday we have had this summer, about two-three weeks later, the case count bumps up significantly. People go to family gatherings and end-of-summer parties will be popular on Labor Day, which is about a week late this year. 

Then there is the resumption of the school year and in many states students K-12 and universities are starting back up with in-person classes. It is just plain expected that cases will surge by the end of September and then a few weeks after that, we'll see the death rate tick up again. 

This is a classic issue of herd behavior. Until the herd (us) learns from the mistakes of the past, we can expect this series of events to repeat itself, again and again. Next up after Labor Day is likely not Halloween, but Thanksgiving. Worse yet for that holiday is that most festivities will be inside. What can we expect for Christmas? More of the same, but then the death toll will be in the 2021 column. 

This is not the year to trek to Grandma's house for a big dinner. Zoom that turkey!!

 

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