First Comes Christmas, Then Comes Sickness

Earlier this month I shared the blog post "A COVID Christmas Catastrophe."

Call me a pessimist, but I see no reason to think that this prediction of more illness, hospitalization and death will not follow during the month of January. I heard one woman say, "We gave up getting together all year, but we are not giving up on Christmas." This is the crux of the issue.

I had a text from my sister who lives in Georgia. They have kept their activities pretty constrained and limited only to immediate family living close to them, their son and family. The plan was to get together on Christmas — but then their daughter-in-law tested positive for COVID-19. Let's make the assumption that she didn't feel ill until the day after Christmas, but would have been shedding the virus on Christmas itself. What then might have been the outcome? And, in reality, maybe they had some contact already while she was infected. Basic science of transmission: 

• Close family means nothing
• Immediate family can transmit the virus the same as the stranger in a store
• Asymptomatic people can be super spreaders

This blog post most likely won't be published until after the holiday, not that it would have influenced anyone's decision on gathering with family members. Thus, it will end up in the "I told you so" pile of blog posts. 

I'm not a rocket scientist, but 2 + 2 = 4 is pretty simple to understand from where I'm sitting.