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Fueling Assumptions

Most troublesome, this has to do with logistics.

If you were to ask, "Eric, what was the worst decision you know that you made over your career (other than hiring decisions — which were the worst), what would it be?" My answer, the assumption I made around how much emergency fuel should be stored at the brand new King County Regional Communications and Emergency Coordination Center (RCECC). They may be calling it an EOC at this point.

In the design phase, the architects and power engineers working on the design asked for the quantity of fuel to be stored. The facility people working for the county wanted that number to be justified by something other than a number that I pulled out of my "4th point of contact."

I looked and looked and could find no standard. In 1998, we were as a nation and emergency management wedded to being prepared for three days in case of a disaster. That became the "run time" calculation for how long the generator would run at full load (Note the facility has two generators, but one is there as a backup). Off the top of my head, I think we ended up with 600 gallons of fuel stored above ground.

Here is the assumption I made. Our facility is a critical node in any regional earthquake and thus would be a high priority for refueling in any disaster. Big mistake in my mind! The more I have learned about the source and distribution of fuel in Washington state and how the existing fuel system will be disrupted — I made a bad assumption. The refineries in northern Washington will certainly be off line for weeks due to damages. The two pipelines that carry the fuel from the refineries will have multiple breaks (they follow the same route, side-by-side by the way). The existing larger fuel storage tanks for the Central Puget Sound sit on a man-made island in Puget Sound — that will be a smoking pile of burning fuel in a worst case, Seattle fault earthquake. And, don't forget the road and bridge network will be severely disrupted. 

Then there is logistics, which if we have learned anything from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is that logistics is not an easy thing to solve. One of my favorite quotes is, "Logistics, if it was easy it would be called taxes."  A couple of years ago, I was informed that the earliest any active duty military could arrive and 'begin' providing help was seven days. 

What I know now is that fuel shortages will be an immediate issue across the minimum of an eight county or more area (really all of Western Washington for a Cascadia Subduction Fault). I don't know how long it will take to provide for an emergency supply of fuel into the region, but what I do know is that it won't happen in three days and the King County RCECC will be one of many "very important" sites needing fuel.

It might be a different topic that you are making an assumption about — just be careful about what you assume. If it has to do with logistics, you might want to double, triple the time, quantity, distance that you have in mind. 

My last thought — I came up with this in the shower this morning — is that one fuel storage site that will likely survive is the existing fuel that is in the multiple bus fleets for the region. Pump it out of the individual buses for distribution to more critical needs, e.g. hospitals, communications centers, etc. 

Eric Holdeman is a contributing writer for Emergency Management magazine and is the former director of the King County, Wash., Office of Emergency Management.