I'll add one more caution to the mix. With the climate changing rapidly I don't think we can count on past history being as much a predictor of the future. My "for instance" is that in King County, Washington State I always looked forward to April 1st (not just for the jokes), but because there has never been a major flood in King County's recorded history after April 1st. So when that date showed up I always breathed a sigh of relief.
Today I don't think we can be so sure. Because of the aforementioned changes in weather patterns we must have our guard up at all times. Tornadoes come earlier, snow records will be broken, windstorms are ever present and as for flooding--It can still happen after April 1st!