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There is a 100% Chance of an Earthquake Occurring

It will happen sometime and somewhere, when we least expect it.

Earthquake prediction is risky business indeed. I missed this original story back in October, see USGS slams study's claim of 99.9% chance of large L.A. earthquake.

People who don’t understand the scientific method can go quickly awry when stories like this hit the mainstream press.Certainly the USGS folks are very leery of anyone predicting when and where earthquakes are going to happen. 

They are comfortable with talking about return intervals and magnitudes, but even then, Japan’s scientists got it all wrong for their last big subduction quake.

Let’s just agree that earthquakes will continue to occur, some small, some large and we won’t know the day or hour of their recurring. Thus, they are what I call, “come as you are disasters.”  You are either ready or not — here they come.

Eric Holdeman is a contributing writer for Emergency Management magazine and is the former director of the King County, Wash., Office of Emergency Management.
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