Just this morning I had a conversation about risk on the train during my commute to Seattle.  I pointed out the 100 tanker car train full of Bakken crude oil headed in the other direction as we passed it on a siding.  We then had a discussion about how people perceive risk and as one passenger said, "block it out of our mind so we are not frozen in fear all the time."  

 

I'm not so sure that is the best tactic.  I favor understanding the hazards and then taking calculated risks based on your risk tolerance, either for financial or human peril.  

 

Then, I got to work and Marty Pastula had sent me the link to a USA Today story Tokyo tops list of cities most at risk of disasters This is an article based on a report from Swiss Re a reinsurance company that needs to pay attention to risks and so titled their report Mind the risk: cities under threat from natural disasters  The fact that only one United States city was listed (Los Angeles) should not make any of us feel more comfortable about our proportion of risk.  There is plenty to go around.

 

The report calls out the growing density of populations being concentrated in urban areas.  We see that happening in North America too.  I read an article recently where it was called the re-urbanization of America.  People are moving from the suburbs and rural areas to cities of all sizes.  Many large cities are now gaining in population where not that long ago they had a declining population base.  Urban areas are dealing with adding schools and other family amenities that didn't typically exist in the downtown business setting--like grocery stores.  Then there is also the continuing trend of people moving to coastal states which then puts them in more peril either due to earthquakes or hurricanes.  

 

You can read the North American summary on page 22 of the linked report.  It makes me wonder if the reason San Francisco is on the list/chart and Seattle isn't is that Swiss Re doesn't understand the seismic risks in the Pacific Northwest.  What about NY City and their risks from hurricanes?  

 

Here is the list of the top ten cities at risk (note: they must be including the entire metro area in their numbers):

 

World's most vulnerable cities, with population:

Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan (57.1 million)
Manila, Philippines (34.6 million)
Pearl-River Delta, China (34.5 million)
Osaka-Kobe, Japan (32.1 million)
Jakarta, Indonesia (27.7 million)
Nagoya, Japan (22.9 million)
Kolkata, India (17.9 million)
Shanghai, China (16.7 million)
Los Angeles (16.4 million)
Tehran, Iran (15.6 million)