As more and more satellites go into orbit, concerns are growing about the odds of aircraft colliding with space debris re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. Three pieces of space junk fall into the atmosphere each day and that number is expected to go up to around a dozen by the mid-2030s.
It’s difficult, very difficult, to predict when and where space debris will fall back to Earth, but the Federal Aviation Administration has some preliminary data on the risk of this debris to airplane flights. The agency estimates that by 2035, there will be a risk of about 7 in 10,000 that one plane per year will have a disastrous strike with space debris.
The bigger concern right now is the disruption that potential falling space debris could cause for airspace operations. By the time all planned satellite constellations are launched, airspace closures for space debris risk could be as frequent as those for bad weather. “Although the probability of space debris hitting an aircraft is small, the probability that the debris will spread and fall over busy airspace is not small. That’s actually quite likely,” said Aaron Boley, an associate professor in astronomy who researches space debris at the University of British Columbia, Canada.
