The mandates would also require all new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles sold in New York be all-electric by 2045.
Energy experts and former power grid operators warn there may not be enough commercially available chargers to service the number of electric vehicles that's envisioned under New York's 2019 Climate Act, and questions remain about whether the state's power grid will be able to support the needs of all consumers, let alone the anticipated surge in EVs.
"The issue is we're trying to balance the state's climate goals with feasibility, with practicality," said Ron Epstein, a former executive deputy commissioner of the state Department of Transportation who helped shape the state's 2019 Climate Act and its scoping plan. "Utility companies are really struggling to meet the demand. Not only are the materials not available to do this, the workforce is not available to do this in the timeframe that's being prescribed."
The concerns about the state's future power grid capabilities are being raised as sales of electric vehicles have slowed, including a 5% decline in April — a month when there was an overall growth of 10% in auto sales. The Institute for Energy Research said many consumers are shifting to hybrid vehicles, which do not create as much "anxiety" for owners concerned about range and charging options.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, more than 130,000 electric vehicles were registered in New York as of Dec. 31, 2023.
If the state wants to get more electric vehicles on the road, experts said a solid charging infrastructure across New York that is both accessible and reliable is needed — a foundation that some believe has yet to be achieved.
Power grid concerns
One of the key factors to supporting the state's EV charging infrastructure is the state's power grid, which delivers electricity from producers to consumers. As the number of EVs on the road rises, more power will need to be drawn from the grid to meet the demand for charging vehicles.
However, as one Syracuse University professor pointed out, increased demand could result in more stress being put on the electric grid. Too much stress could lead to a grid failure, similar to when low temperatures in 2021 caused serious issues in Texas, resulting in insufficient power generation capacity to meet demands and causing blackouts across the state.
"The power grid already has a large burden from (current) energy consumption, which is usually used for buildings, industries, manufacturers," said Bing Dong, a mechanical and aerospace engineering professor. "If you add more EVs ... the power grid (doesn't) have such capacity at all."
Dong said the grid has to grow its transmission and distribution infrastructure to meet the demand needed by EV chargers, but where it is right now is not enough to support New York's "ambitious" goals.
Epstein, who worked for New York government agencies for 30 years and is now president of the New York Construction Materials Association, said that some grid operators are already indicating that, "we may see blackouts across the state, especially downstate, because of the lack of availability of power."
An annual report recently issued by the New York Independent System Operator, which operates and manages the state's power grid, stated that the grid is seeing declining reliability margins due to aging fossil-fueled power plants being taken out of service while new sources of energy are not keeping pace with expected increases in demand.
Last week, Gov. Kathy Hochul offered a new option for New York to try and meet its renewable energy mandates when she directed the New York Power Authority "to develop and construct a zero-emission advanced nuclear power plant in upstate New York."
The governor's directive came 10 months after she had convened an energy summit in Syracuse as the state struggles to meet the mandates of the Climate Act. Those mandates include having 70% renewable electricity sources by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2040 — goals that many business leaders and experts familiar with power production have long cautioned are unattainable in that time period.
Epstein said a nuclear power plant helps provide a cleaner source of energy to meet growing electricity demands, and therefore also helps in reaching New York's vehicle emission goals.
"What we're looking for as an industry is practical and scalable solutions that help achieve the state's sustainable objectives," Epstein said. "We need a portfolio of solutions that will help us get there in a timely manner."
But Gavin Donohue, president of the Independent Power Producers of New York, said while nuclear energy is a zero-emission source that will be helpful for the state and its power grid, it's an investment that will cost billions of dollars and take 10 to 15 years to get up and running.
"The fact that Gov. Hochul views it as a reliable zero-emitting resource that can provide a large amount of power, that's a good thing," Donohue said. "But we have to get moving, and we should have been moving yesterday on it."
Mohammed Agamy, a former grid operator and associate professor of electrical engineering at University at Albany, said another solution for New York's power grid to keep pace with an increasing demand would be to invest in battery plants that store electricity from the grid.
The battery reserves connected to the grid would help provide grid stability, Agamy said, reducing strain as well as acting as a buffer during periods of high demand for power, which experts say in the future could be during the winter months. Those batteries storing electricity could then act as a direct supply of energy for EV chargers.
But it's an expensive solution, said both Agamy and Dong, making it not an easy investment.
"Eventually, (New York's EV goals) probably will happen, but will it happen in five years or 10 years? Maybe that's a little too aggressive," Agamy said.
Eric Hittinger, a professor at Rochester Institute of Technology who's more optimistic about the state meeting EV mandates, said having the vehicles charging at night when demand is lower can also help to ease stress on the grid.
Accessibility and costs
Hittinger said while chargers for EV drivers can frequently be found in commercial and business districts in urban areas, that convenience isn't the same for suburban and residential areas.
"It's a challenging chicken and egg problem for those companies that put out the chargers," Hittinger said. "To get people to adopt electric vehicles so you want to put out enough chargers that everyone says there's plenty of ways to charge my car. But on the other hand, if you put out too many, then they're underutilized and you don't make any money on your investment."
In Albany, a map of EV chargers published by PlugShare, a charging station locater, shows a swath of available chargers in downtown Albany. But on the outskirts of the city and into the surrounding suburbs, the availability of publicly accessible charges dwindles.
Eilyan Bitar, an associate professor with Cornell University's School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, said that accessibility is also limited for those who rent and live in apartments, and are unable to install a charger where they live. As a result, he said restraint on accessing a charger can keep people from buying an electric vehicle.
"I think in cooperation with power utilities, deploying curbside charging more broadly will be crucial in residential neighborhoods," Bitar said. "Not just public charging in business districts."
Bitar said the difficulty of accessing a charger can dissuade consumers from buying an electric vehicle.
There's also the make-ready costs associated with building a charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. Those expenses raise doubts about the feasibility of New York's emission-free mandates, Epstein said.
He noted that building a charging station, installing the electric lines, adding a transformer — which converts power from the grid to the charging station — and paying utility companies to supply electricity to the chargers can be expensive, especially for locations that require multiple chargers, including school bus depots.
"I think the real impact on cost to consumers, ultimately, will be the cost of businesses to meet the goals," Epstein said. "We're talking multiple millions of dollars here that nobody sees."
The costs for chargers are something that Shenendehowa Central School District, which has four electric buses and two chargers, is evaluating. The large school district, like others across New York, is in the process of transitioning its fleet from diesel to electric under the state's mandate for all school buses to be zero emission by 2035. The school district's director of transportation, Belinda Govich, said they'll need more electrical infrastructure upgrades to meet that requirement.
On top of getting two additional transformers, Govich said the school district is thinking of installing an electrical substation, a type of facility where electricity is transformed into voltage, but which could cost around $20 million.
"There are other things ... we could do in the meantime, which would be adding transformers to give us the power we need as we progress throughout the years," Govich said. "But unfortunately, once you get past a certain amount of megawatts, you're in instant substation territory so most likely it will be unavoidable."
A transformer, Govich said, can cost around $100,000 each and an additional $300,000 to $500,000 to install.
To help schools meet the state's 2035 goal, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced in September 2023 that $100 million would be allocated to help schools transition to zero-emission school buses.
Govich said there's also been growing pains for the Shenendehowa district after getting its first four electric buses. The battery charge of buses depletes faster in cold weather and at other times, resulting in drivers having to come back and switch to a diesel bus because the electric vehicle didn't have enough power to complete its route.
She said those issues can be a challenge for school districts, particularly rural ones, where "they travel 100 miles just to go pick up a handful of kids."
"(Electric vehicles) definitely have a place in the industry," Govich said. "I don't necessarily think it's one size fits all. I definitely think that there are some major operational challenges all the districts are going to face."
Additionally, a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling — which allows fossil fuel companies to sue over California's vehicle emission rules — poses potential legal issues for New York's zero-emission mandates.
Under the 1970 Clean Air Act, California was granted a waiver to enact tougher state-level clean air standards than those set by the federal government. With that unique authority, the state has built a comprehensive electric vehicle program that bans new gasoline-powered car sales by 2035. New York was one of various states to adopt some of California's clean vehicle regulations.
But in recent years, oil and gas companies have challenged California's authority.
Along with President Donald J. Trump having signed resolutions on June 12 barring California from mandating electric vehicle sales, Epstein said revoking a state's ability to regulate car emissions puts a major block in New York's goals.
"Anytime you have a rule that would block states from moving forward with strategies to achieve the goals that were established in (New York's Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act), it is going to make it more difficult to achieve, and it's going to require more aggressive strategies," Epstein said. "And the problem with being more aggressive is you lessen the affordability."
New York's lacking charging infrastructure is something state Sen. Jeremy Cooney, a Democrat from Monroe County and chair of the Senate's Transportation Committee, is aware of, too. He noted that the increasing number of electric vehicles will take a big toll on the state's power grid.
Additionally, Cooney pointed out that under the Trump administration, there's been a push to reduce the generous tax credits for electric vehicle purchases that may deter New York in reaching its climate goals. Tariffs implemented by the president also might make it more difficult and costly to buy and build charging stations.
But he believes that the state is taking steps in the right direction to build out that charging infrastructure.
"We want to make sure that we really, really hit our climate goals," Cooney said. "We need more New Yorkers on low-income levels in all parts of the state, not just in New York City, not just in upstate New York, to be able to drive these new vehicles."
According to a spokeswoman for the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, the state has enacted a range of initiatives, including programs called "EV Make Ready" and "EVolve NY," to allocate resources and funding for installing electric vehicle chargers. Since 2019, the number of public charging stations has increased by more than 260% to nearly 18,000 charging stations.
"While the federal government continues to put up roadblocks that hamper the adoption of electric vehicles and buildout of charging infrastructure, the State's nearly $3 billion investment in electrifying its transportation sector continues to contribute significantly to the adoption of cleaner, more cost-effective mobility options that reduce air pollution and improve public health for New Yorkers," the authority said in a statement.
The authority also administered $500 million in funding to help school districts and bus operators purchase buses, plan for, and install charging infrastructure. The statement issued by the authority did not say whether officials there believe New York will have the infrastructure by 2035 to support the Climate Act's mandate that all new light-duty vehicles sold by then will need to be electric.
The state budget adopted this year set aside $50 million for fast-charging infrastructure. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority also increased incentives for its "Charge Ready" program to help reduce equipment installation costs for chargers for workplaces and homes.
"I think New York will hit our goals ... (but) I don't know when we're going to hit those goals, and because there's so much unknown with our federal partner," Cooney said. "But at the end of the day, New York can't do this alone. We have to work with our state colleagues. We have to work with our federal partners to reach our goals."
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