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Small Unmanned Aircraft to Fly into Hurricanes to Assist with Forecasting

Scientists hope the drones will provide new clues about the still-mysterious cores of hurricanes -- and specifically, the process that allows them to strengthen.

This summer, a fleet of small unmanned aircraft, similar to radio-controlled models sold by hobby stores, is to be launched into the heart of hurricanes to beam back information that may sharpen the accuracy of tropical forecasts, scientists say.

But the satellite-linked drones likely won't be permitted to conduct reconnaissance missions into storms that approach the U.S. coastline, the upshot of a bureaucratic tiff between two federal agencies.

The Federal Aviation Administration has refused to authorize the planes, called Aerosondes, to fly near the U.S. mainland or adjacent international waters, saying they could endanger planes fleeing a hurricane.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration wants to deploy the 30-pound drones from coastal Virginia or Key West and argues they would operate far from normal air routes.

Until the two agencies come to an agreement, NOAA plans to launch the winged probes from Jamaica or Barbados during the 2008 hurricane season into storms that pose an initial threat to the Caribbean.

Missions flown from those tropical islands still would allow scientists to hone the Aerosonde program, which will be conducted on an experimental basis, said Joseph Cione, NOAA's principal investigator for unmanned aerial system research.

"The endgame is to improve forecasts and save lives and property," he said.
Although Aerosondes have been flying into storms, exploring arctic regions and undertaking other scientific missions for about seven years, NOAA wants to step up their use this year.

Scientists hope the drones will provide new clues about the still-mysterious cores of hurricanes -- and specifically, the process that allows them to strengthen.

Manufactured by Aerosonde, based in Melbourne, Australia, the propeller-driven weather probes, which cost more than $50,000 each, are engineering marvels.

Equipped with a 1.6-horsepower engine and flight management computer, the drone can fly an astonishing 2,300 miles on 1.5 gallons of fuel at a cruising speed of about 60 mph.
With such stamina, the drones can be directed into a hurricane and drift in its swirling winds for more than 20 hours. After enduring the turbulence, they are rugged enough to return to their home base intact.

Though Aerosondes might be considered the cousins of military drones, they aren't nearly as big or powerful. The U.S. Air Force Predator, for instance, weighs up to 2,250 pounds, is equipped with a 115-horsepower engine and can be armed with laser-guided missiles.

By flying as low as 300 feet above the ocean, an altitude far too dangerous for manned aircraft, the Aerosondes can transmit temperature, wind, barometric pressure and humidity readings from that important slice of the atmosphere to the National Hurricane Center, said Cione, who is based in Miami.

No other technology is available to obtain such key information instantaneously, the NOAA official said.

After feeding the data into forecast models, the hurricane center should be able to better determine a storm's structure and warn which areas of Florida and other at-risk states stand to be hit hardest.

Aerosondes already have demonstrated a tenacious ability to examine storms.

One flew for 17.5 hours in Hurricane Noel last November and another for 10 hours in Hurricane Ophelia in September 2005. The planes provided a better understanding of how thermal energy is transferred from the warm ocean to the storm above it, Cione said.

"If we don't understand that, we will never have really accurate forecasts, so it's a critical region," he said.

From the FAA's point of view, the problem with the drone is that when a hurricane approaches, residents in cars aren't the only ones who flee. In Florida alone, thousands of airplanes and helicopters belonging to airlines, flight schools, private individuals and the U.S. military also would retreat, FAA spokeswoman Kathleen Bergen said.

"We want to be sure that the unmanned aerial system operations can be done safely without impacting any of those aircraft that are evacuating--or the hurricane hunters," she said.

The FAA does intend to issue NOAA and its partner in the Aerosonde program, NASA, permission to fly the small planes, Bergen said. But she said that would be with restrictions and would come too late to affect flights during the 2008 hurricane season, which starts June 1 and lasts six months.

Anson Franklin, NOAA spokesman, said his agency will continue to "work closely" with the FAA to find a way to eventually operate the drones from U.S. bases.

"We will still be able to find some ways to continue testing the unmanned aerial system without running afoul of any regulations," he said.

The Aerosondes are part of a broader NOAA program to use unmanned aircraft to monitor global events, such as arctic ice melting, volcanic lava flows and changes in fish and whale populations. NOAA recently invested an additional $3 million in its overall unmanned aircraft program.

Aerosondes already have flown more than 1,000 hours in the Arctic yet are so flexible that they also can fly in baking Sahara heat, said Daniel Fowler, a drone operator with the Aerosonde firm.

He said the plane is constructed with tough polymers, such as those used in bulletproof vests, and other advanced materials.

Fowler said the probe is normally launched from the back of a moving vehicle via radio controls, like many model airplanes. Then control is transferred to satellite, with an operator in a mission command post taking charge.

"Once on satellite, the operator can be anywhere on the face of the planet, talking to the plane," he said.

In the future, Aerosondes might help forecasters better anticipate when tropical systems might rapidly intensify, a phenomenon that until now has been hard to foresee, said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center.

He said the drones might also help determine the size of storms, information that would help emergency managers better plan for evacuations.

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