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A Medical Catastrophe Is Waiting if We Follow Italy's Lead

The numbers and the arc in the chart tell the tale.

We are the pink line below. The "bad arcs are Italy, Iran and the United States." If the planning assumption is that we will end up where Italy is today, then we are in deep trouble. Italy is in the middle of a medical catastrophe with life and death decisions being made in hospitals — who gets a respirator and who doesn't!

Years ago I called a physician's assistant to check on the condition of one of my soldiers who had been in a rollover accident in an Armored Personnel Carrier (APC). When I inquired about his condition, he reported "NSG." I had to ask what's that mean? "Not So Good." He was in critical condition with a crushed chest.

Here is the Vox story on the tale of two arcs, How the US stacks up to other countries in confirmed coronavirus cases.

The fact of the matter is that cases of coronavirus could be exploding right now in the United States, but we don't know it because of a lack of testing kits. 

Let me digress from the story above to comment on a lack of testing kits. The World Health Organization (WHO) had a functional COVID-19 test kit. However, the CDC (or ?) insisted on developing our own kits — which in the first round of development--did not work. It took weeks to fix the issue.

Why would we not use WHO kits? I can think of several reasons. First there is the "we are exceptional" which means we are so good at what we do, including designing medical test kits, we don't trust others and don't want to be seen as using someone else's kits because we can't do the job ourselves.

Then there is the World Health Organization, which is associated with the United Nations (UN), and is headquartered in Geneva. The current administration and has not aligned itself with global organizations and alliances of any type, to include the UN. The USA has withdrawn from multiple international agreements of different types. This "America First" attitude can pervade decision-making at many levels. It may have caused us to propagate a fatal flaw that will sicken and kill more people than if we had less pride. 

As for my soldier, he went from NSG to surviving his injuries. As a nation, we too will survive this. However, right now I'd rate our condition as being NSG. See chart the below and hope I'm wrong.

vokbm-number-of-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-by-days-since-100th-case.png


 



Eric Holdeman is a contributing writer for Emergency Management magazine and is the former director of the King County, Wash., Office of Emergency Management.