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Historical Context Plays a Vital Role in Risk Analysis

The seeds of future disasters may well lie in past events. You ignore them at your peril.

In a recent article on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., argues that it is impossible to craft a cogent response to terrorism without an understanding of history of the region and the U.S. foreign policy failures that created the current situation. Kennedy states that we cannot make assumptions about the motivations of the protagonists in the Middle East without an understanding of the historical context that shaped those motivations. The importance of historical context is also crucial to risk analysis. Understanding risk requires not only knowledge of current threats but an appreciation of past threats as well, many of which may still reach out and affect the present.

Here’s an example of what I mean. On July 14, 1953, the S.S. Jacob Luckenbach collided with another vessel and sank about 17 miles southwest of the Golden Gate, the entrance to San Francisco Bay. The vessel was carrying more than 400,000 gallons of bunker fuel. That fuel has been responsible for environmental disasters over the years, killing more than 51,000 birds and at least eight sea otters between 1990 and 2003. In all, it is estimated that some 300,000 gallons of fuel have leaked from the wreck. The Coast Guard spent $20 million on a cleanup project in 2002 and recovered roughly 100,000 gallons. However, about 29,000 gallons were impossible to remove and remain in the wreck. Although the wreck was patched and sealed, as of last month, the vessel is leaking again.

The Jacob Luckenbach is not the only wreck off our coasts that creates this type of problem. Nor is it the only type of problem we face. Derelict mines, for example, pose considerable problems for many Western states. Consider the case of the Gold King mine spill in 2015 in Colorado. The mine had been closed since 1923 before being nominated as a Superfund cleanup site in 1990. Local resistance prevented any major work on cleanup prior to the disaster in 2015. In my own city of San Francisco, infilling of the old shoreline to create new ground for development played a large role in the damage to the Marina District in the 1980 Loma Prieta earthquake. Understanding historical context is important, whether in foreign policy or emergency management.

The past teaches what has happened and could potentially happen again. It gives insight into how our predecessors handled past crises, suggesting concepts that might be adaptable to future crises. But the past also serves another important function. It enables us to recognize that past disasters may still carry the seeds of future ones.

Lucien Canton is a management consultant specializing in helping managers lead better in crisis. He has been in turn a professional soldier, a private security manager, and an emergency manager before becoming a consultant.