See this article, Earthquake experts lay out latest outlook for the ‘Really Big One’ that’ll hit Seattle.
Some of the excuses I've heard over the years include:
- We don't want to scare people
- It is not good to paint the worst-case picture
- Let's tell them everything we are doing — which then, I believe, "gives the impression that they don't have to do anything."
- Explain how everything is getting "better"
- Make broad statements about how one hazard compares to another completely different type — getting struck by lightning is often used
- We don't want to make our bosses or other partners look bad because of the poor level of effort being made
- Others you have heard?
The 14% chance of the "Big One" over 50 years sounds like a bet that most people are willing to take — for doing nothing. I was told a number of years ago that we have a 5% chance annually of an earthquake happening from all the different fault zones in western Washington. To the average citizen, they are not impressed by that percentage. I told the number to a statistician once and he said, "That is significant!"
I will repeat my four stages of denial here:
- It won't happen
- If it does happen, it won't happen to me
- If it does happen, and it happens to me — it won't be that bad
- Lastly, if it does happen, and it happens to me, and it is that bad — there is nothing I can do, we will all be dead anyway.