We Are in the Eye of the COVID Hurricane

Case rates, hospitalizations and deaths have declined significantly from the holiday surge that ended in February. Right now we are at a plateau in all three categories that have been tracked. The improving conditions have motivated multiple governors to start lifting restrictions on masks and public gatherings. 

The issue is that the pandemic is still ongoing — it has just gone from terrible to bad. Right now infectious disease experts are expecting another surge in cases as the new variants of the disease spread more widely. See this quote from a CNN article:

"And highly contagious variants that are already circulating have experts worried another Covid-19 spike could be just weeks away. More than 2,700 cases of variants first spotted in the UK, South Africa and Brazil have been reported in the US, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- but the agency has cautioned that's not the total number of cases in the country, but rather those that have been spotted with the help of genomic sequencing.

"Spring break could be a perfect storm for spreading coronavirus variants. The vast majority of these cases -- at least 2,672 -- are the more contagious variant known as B.1.1.7, first spotted in the UK. The variant has been found in 46 states, Puerto Rico and Washington, DC."

I have to say that I was wrong about a spike in cases coming from the Super Bowl weekend. I guess the declining cases and the fact that the variants had not "kicked in" significantly saved us from that happening. 

Now we have spring break starting and college kids flocking to warmer temperatures and beaches. These "immortal individuals" will create their own superspreader event and then distribute COVID-19 back to where they came from. 

See the entire CNN article here: "Don't drop the masks yet. One coronavirus variant is 'increasing exponentially' as the US races to vaccinate."

Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, warned CNN on Friday, "that virus is about to take off in the United States." He is the most pessimistic of the infectious disease experts. He thinks the next wave of infections could be the worst phase of the entire pandemic. 

I fear we are seeing a COVID-19 repeat of the mistake made by the Seahawks football player DK Metcalf when he "let up on the gas" since he thought he had a touchdown. However, the virus (I mean the defensive back) made him pay.

In a pandemic trying to coast into the end zone will cost lives. We'll see who is spiking the football by about the end of March and early April.