El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . It represents the warm phase of the cycle, and La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific.
The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project team forecasts 23 named storms, including 11 hurricanes, five of which will be major hurricanes. A slightly more intense prediction was released from the Climate Adaptation Center in Florida, which forecasted the 2024 hurricane season to feature 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes.
Both research intuitions predict an active hurricane season in response to record-warm sea surface temperatures in much of the southern Atlantic , Caribbean, and even part of the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the sea surface temperatures are forecasted to remain well above average this year during the active hurricane season.
"These are record-setting warm temperatures for this early in the season," a portion of the Climate Adaptation Center in Florida stated.
"A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook," a portion of the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project team forecast read.
A second variable contributing to the increased hurricane activity this season is the shift in wind shear from El Niño conditions to La Niña. When El Niño occurs, the wind shear in the Atlantic Hurricane Development Area, which includes the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and southern portions of the Atlantic , is higher than normal, the Climate Adaptation Center report explains. The report adds that typically, during El Niño years, there are fewer hurricanes and fewer strong hurricanes.
When conditions shift to La Niña, the less wind shear results in more clouds surrounding the eye of a tropical storm, which can stack up. When this happens, the storm can quickly intensify, and with warm sea surface temperatures, it can intensify quickly.
With the variables shifting to more conclusive conditions for hurricanes, researchers from both institutions anticipate that the environmental conditions offer a "well above-average probability" of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and the Caribbean.
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