The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model, which has previously been accurate in anticipating death totals in the U.S., forecasts daily deaths to rise from current levels of just over 1,100 a day to almost 1,400 a day by mid-September before decreasing again.
The virulent delta variant has prompted a new surge of cases and hospitalizations as officials continue to push vaccinations to prevent the most severe outcomes of the disease.
However, the model also indicates that the country’s behavior could also significantly lower the cumulative death toll.
“We can save 50,000 lives simply by wearing masks. That’s how important behaviors are,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle who is involved in the making of the projections.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data shows the pace of new vaccinations is increasing, with the seven-day moving average increasing from around 436,000 new doses administered in early July to an average of 775,000 as of last week.
The increase comes on the heels of a wide swath of mandates that will become in effect in the coming weeks.
While city health officials noted that breakthrough infections are becoming more frequent due to the delta variant, data shows 97% of hospitalizations throughout the five boroughs since January have been among the unvaccinated.
“Vaccines continue to be extremely effective,” said Mayor Bill de Blasio.
“There are some breakthrough cases — that’s true — but the bottom line is the vaccine overwhelmingly works on the things we care about the most, which is stopping people from being hospitalized, stopping people from ending up with the most severe illnesses, and certainly, most importantly, protecting lives,” he said.
© 2021 Staten Island Advance, N.Y. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
