In no particular order, McAfee Avert Labs' top 10 security threats for 2007 are:
- The number of password-stealing Web sites will increase using fake sign-in pages for popular online services such as eBay
- The volume of spam, particularly bandwidth-eating image spam, will continue to increase
- The popularity of video sharing on the Web makes it inevitable that hackers will target MPEG files as a means to distribute malicious code
- Mobile phone attacks will become more prevalent as mobile devices become "smarter" and more connected
- Adware will go mainstream following the increase in commercial potentially unwanted programs (PUPs)
- Identity theft and data loss will continue to be a public issue -- the root of these crimes is often computer theft, loss of backups and compromised information systems
- The use of bots -- computer programs that perform automated tasks -- will increase as a tool favored by hackers
- Parasitic malware, or viruses that modify existing files on a disk, will make a comeback
- The number of rootkits on 32-bit platforms will increase, but protection and remediation capabilities will increase as well
- Vulnerabilities will continue to cause concern fueled by the underground market for vulnerabilities.
"Within a short period of time, computers have become an intrinsic and essential part of everyday life, and as a result there is a huge potential for monetary gains by malware writers," said Jeff Green, senior vice president of McAfee Avert Labs and product development. "As we see sophisticated techniques on the rise, it's becoming increasingly hard for the general user base to identify or avoid malware infections."
Today, McAfee researchers are seeing evidence of the rise of professional and organized crime in malware creation, whereby development teams are creating malicious software, testing it and automating its production and release. Sophisticated techniques such as polymorphism, the recurrence of parasitic infectors, rootkits, and automated systems with cycling encryption releasing new builds are becoming more prevalent. Furthermore, threats are being packed or encrypted to disguise their malicious purpose on a more rapid and complex scale.
Phishing
More attacks that attempt to capture a user's ID and password by displaying a fake sign-in page, and increased targeting of popular online services such as eBay, will become more evident in 2007. As evidenced by the phishing attacks that followed Hurricane Katrina, McAfee Avert Labs also expects more attacks that take advantage of people's willingness to help others in need. In contrast, the number of attacks on ISPs are expected to decline while those aimed at the financial sector will remain steady.
Spam and Video
Spam, particularly image spam, is on the rise. Image spam is typically three times the size of text-based spam, so this represents a significant increase in the bandwidth used by spam messages.
The popularity of video on the Web will make it a target for hackers. Unlike situations involving email attachments, most users will open media files without hesitation. Furthermore, as video is an easy-to-use format, functionality such as padding, pop-up ads and URL redirects become ideal tools of destruction for malware writers. In combination, these issues make malicious coders likely to achieve a high degree of effectiveness with media malware.
Mobile Threats
Mobile threats will continue to grow as platform convergence continues. The use of smartphone technology has played a pivotal role in the threat's transition from multifunction, semi-stationary PCs to palm-sized "wearable" devices. With increased connectivity through BlueTooth, SMS, instant messaging, e-mail, Wi-Fi, USB, audio, video
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and Web, there are more possibilities for cross-device contamination.
Late 2006 saw a flurry of spyware offerings in the mobile world. Most are designed to monitor phone numbers and SMS call logs, or to steal SMS messages by forwarding copies to another phone. One spyware in particular -- SymbOS/Flexispy.B -- is able to remotely activate the microphone of the victim's device, allowing someone to eavesdrop upon that person. Other spyware can activate the camera. McAfee expects that the offerings of commercial spyware targeting mobile devices to grow in 2007.
Adware
In 2006, there was an increase in commercial potentially unwanted programs (PUPs), and an even larger increase in related types of malicious Trojans, particularly keyloggers, password-stealers, bots and backdoors. In addition, misuse of commercial software by malware with remotely controlled deployment of adware, keyloggers and remote control software is on the rise. However, despite the social, legal and technical challenges, there is so much commercial interest in advertising revenue models that McAfee expects to see more legitimate companies using or attempting to use advertising software in ways (hopefully) less objectionable to consumers than most current adware.
Identity theft and data loss will continue to be a public issue. According to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, approximately 10 million Americans are victims of identity fraud each year. At the root of these crimes is often computer theft, loss of backups or compromised information systems. While McAfee expects the number of victims to remain relatively stable, company disclosures of lost or stolen data, increasing incidents of cyberthefts and hacking into retailer, processor and ATM systems, and reports of stolen laptops that contain confidential data, will continue to keep this topic of public concern.
Bots
Bots -- computer programs that perform automated tasks -- are on the rise, but will move away from Internet Relay Chat (IRC)-based communication mechanisms and toward less obtrusive ones. In the last few years, there has been increasing interest within the virus-writing community in IRC threats. This was due to the power afforded by the IRC scripting language and the ease of coordinating infected machines from a chat-room type of structure.
"Mules" will also continue to be an important aspect in bot-related money-making schemes. These are work-at-home type jobs which are offered through very professional-looking Web sites, through classified ads, and even through instant messaging (IM). These are a crucial part of the reason so many bots are able to be run from places around the globe. In order to get merchandise (often to resell) or cash with stolen credit card credentials, the thieves have to go through more strict regulations if the goods are going to another country. To get around these regulations, they use mules within those originating countries.
Even through parasitic malware accounts for less than 10 percent of all malware (90 percent of malware is static), it seems to be making a comeback. Parasitic infectors are viruses that modify existing files on a disk, injecting code into the file where it resides. When the user runs the infected file, the virus runs too. W32/Bacalid, W32/Polip and W32Detnat are three popular polymorphic parasitic file infectors identified in 2006 that have stealth capabilities and attempt to download Trojans from compromised Web sites.
Also important to note is that 80 percent of all malware is packed, encrypted or obfuscated, in some attempt to disguise its malicious purpose. Examples of parasitic infectors that are obfuscated include w32/Bacalid and w32/Polip.
Rootkits
Rootkits will increase on 32-bit platforms -- but protection and remediation capabilities will increase as well. On 64-bit platforms, particularly Vista, malware trends are difficult to predict pending uptake rates for the 64-bit platform. In general McAfee Avert Labs expect a reduction in kernel-mode rootkits, while malware authors invent new techniques designed to subvert PatchGuard, and an increase in user-mode rootkits, and user-mode malware in general.
The number of disclosed vulnerabilities is expected to rise in 2007. Thus far in 2006, Microsoft has announced 140 vulnerabilities through its monthly patch program. This number is expected to grow due to the increased use of fuzzers, which allow for large scale testing of applications, and due to the bounty program that rewards researchers for finding vulnerabilities.
McAfee Avert Labs has also noted a trend in zero-day attacks following Microsoft's monthly patch cycle. Since the patches are issued only once per month, this encourages exploit writers to release zero-day Microsoft exploits soon after a month's patch Tuesday to maximize the vulnerability's window of exposure.
