Offering a glimpse at some of these debates to attendees at the California IT in Education (CITE) conference in Sacramento today, Barrett Snider, a legislative advocate for CITE and partner at Capitol Advisors Group, started with the good news: State revenues are trending about $20 billion above projections. Including last year and this year, according to the Legislative Analyst’s Office, the amount of money being invested in AI by tech companies is driving significant state revenue increases in taxed income and capital gains.
“The good news here is that, absent some popping of the AI bubble, or a rapid deflation of that bubble … the governor is likely to have some significant revenue this year,” he said. “It’s so much that it’s hiding the fact that the next two biggest sources of revenue from the state, which are corporate taxes and sales and use tax, are actually down from projections.”
Unfortunately, according to panelists, what schools get from those billions of dollars in unexpected revenue will be another one-time infusion of money, rather than a recurring fund capable of supporting new programs or long-term expenses.
CITE’s Deputy Executive Director Laurel Nava explained why this is not ideal.
“We actually don’t advocate to say that we want the state to create a pot of money for cybersecurity, or a pot of money for technology, because we’re afraid it’s never enough. The state could put $2 billion in that and say, ‘OK, that’s it for 10 years,’” she said. “So what we advocate for is flexible money that can adapt to local technology.”
The state’s practice of lowballing revenue estimates isn’t new — it was an effective political strategy for Gov. Jerry Brown, Snider said, so it’s to be expected that Gov. Gavin Newsom would continue with it — but the uncertainty around repeated infusions of one-time dollars hasn’t helped schools administer programs that need reliable annual funding.
However, Snider said he expects there will be some K-12 programs and achievements Newsom will want to button down before his last term ends and he likely runs for president, such as universal school meals, universal transitional kindergarten, before- and after-school programs, and bills protecting kids from hazards of AI and social media.
“There was a huge push this year, and I suspect there will be again next year, around social media, artificial intelligence, and in particular how it’s impacting not just kids but all users … and where we are knowing that we’re seeing increases in suicidal ideation, self harm, all sorts of bad things coming along with this rampant, explosive use of AI by kids,” said Nick Romley, another legislative advocate from Capitol Advisors Group.
Panelists offered a list of consequential ed-tech bills signed last year:
- AB56, which requires all social media companies to show black box warnings to minors.
- AB370, which allows staff to delay fulfilling Public Records Act requests in the event of a cybersecurity incident.
- SB243, which requires any entities (including schools/districts) that make companion chatbots to include special parameters for users who are minors.
Looking ahead at major issues in 2026, Snider said he expects the Legislature to entertain policy discussions around mounting problems with Public Records Act requests; tech in the classroom such as AI, chatbots, social media and personal devices; accountability and compliance reform; and the impacts of federal funding changes. Specifically, he said he expects debates around extending Prop. 30 and Prop. 55’s taxes on high earners, which are set to expire in 2030.
